21-10-2023 (BANGKOK) Parliament’s biggest party with 151 MPs convened an assembly last month to elect a new leader and board executives, and political pundits were watching closely who would take the helm.
The leadership was left vacant by the resignation of Pita Limjarorenrat, who shot to political stardom and was credited with adding gloss to the MFP’s lustre and propelling the party to election victory.
Mr Pita stepped down as his high-profile iTV shareholding saga was dragging on in the Constitutional Court and preventing the MFP from leading the opposition.
The Constitutional Court has suspended Mr Pita as an MP pending a ruling in the shareholding case. The longer his suspension continues, the more the MFP stands to lose politically from being unable to have someone who can fill the opposition leader role and shine.
Strategy called for Mr Pita to quit as MFP leader and let his successor take over so the party could concentrate on the business of monitoring the government.
In the days leading up to the MFP leadership election, speculation was rife that there would be a two-horse race.
Sirikanya Tansakul was the frontrunner, having been thrust into the limelight during the election campaign when she showcased her vision and credentials needed to convince voters she could make the cut as finance minister.
The other strong contender was Chaithawat Tulathon, the party secretary-general, dubbed the party’s brain and main strategist.
Some analysts gave Ms Sirikanya the thumbs down because of what they thought was a mediocre performance by her during election canvassing.
Mr Chaithawat, on the other hand, outshone her with his outward character that defined his finesse, maturity and level-headedness. He is believed to be one of the chief architects of MFP policies, which give the party its identity.
No eyebrows were raised when Mr Chaithawat was overwhelmingly elected to replace Mr Pita, having raked in 330 votes at the party assembly. Only five voted against him and three abstained.
However, what took many political watchers aback was the victory speech he gave.
“The new executives and I are prepared to stand down [if and when] Mr Pita stages a comeback as an MP.
“The changes [in leadership] that have taken place today [Sept 24] are therefore temporary,” Mr Chaithawat said.
Mr Pita, who attended the leadership election, however, gave a contradictory view when he confirmed that his successor was the real deal.
While Mr Chaithawat’s speech created an air of uncertainty over how he was expected to lead the party, a political source thinks he may be in for the long haul as MFP boss.
The Songkhla native co-founded the now-disbanded Future Forward Party (FFP), which morphed into the MFP. He had worked closely with Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, the former FFP leader who is now head of the Progressive Movement.
Their ties date back to the days they ran Fah Diew Gun (Same Sky), a magazine known for sometimes delving deep into political activism and social criticism.
The source noted that there could be more to Mr Pita relinquishing the MFP leadership than meets the eye. His resignation may have come at the most opportune time to deliver the best leverage for the MFP, which is looking to maximise its impact on the political scene as a ‘pro-active’ main opposition party.
A successful MFP poster boy, Mr Pita, being a young, flamboyant politician with a favourable family and educational background, has proved a tremendous asset as a pull factor for the party during elections. He worked his charm to help the MFP earn its election triumph, and what is needed next — to maintain the party’s popularity until the next election so it can realise its ambition of staging a landslide win and running the government single-handedly — requires a different set of skills from the leader.
This is where Mr Chaithawat’s firm hand in management, strategy formulation and strategic foresight will be put to the test, according to the source.
The MFP has positioned itself as a force to be reckoned with in scrutinising — a fancy term for picking faults with the government.
In a political climate split into two camps, one led by the ruling Pheu Thai Party and the other by the MFP, a credibility deficit experienced by Pheu Thai could see the pendulum of public support swing towards the MFP. If the MFP can gain and maintain the weight of popularity, the party may find security in the knowledge that it can repeat an election win but by a much wider margin in the next polls.
Wallet woes could get worse
In light of criticism by economic experts, including former governors of the Bank of Thailand, the Pheu Thai Party-led government had found itself a plausible excuse to reassess its 10,000-baht digital wallet policy.
Unfortunately, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin let the chance to revise or back down from the controversial programme slip away when urging the scheme’s supporters to make their voices heard, according to observers.
During a visit to Phitsanulok last weekend, he not only called on locals to speak out if they believed in the merits of the giveaway but also used his X account, formerly known as Twitter, to get the public to rally behind the scheme.
“If you agree with me and are in support of this policy, don’t let people who are opposed to it without substantial reasons stop it. And let us know you’re happy with it and are glad to have the scheme. We want your support because we’re here to work for you,” Mr Srettha wrote.
The prime minister’s message does not sit well with the policy’s critics.
They fear it could potentially lead to a confrontation between supporters and opponents of the scheme, and by urging the supporters to speak out, the prime minister could be seen as possibly planning to hide behind the support he has amassed should something go wrong with its implementation.
“When damage occurs in the future, they can’t put the blame on the people, and it’s totally out of line to incite people into confronting each other.
“Moreover, it feels like people could be used as a shield to avoid taking responsibility,” acting Democrat leader Jurin Laksanawisit was quoted as saying.
Defending himself, Mr Srettha explained he was only trying to gauge public opinion, both positive and negative feedback, about the digital wallet scheme without any intention to stoke confrontation or cause divisions.
According to the policy’s critics, the country is well-situated to ride out economic hardship, while the source of the funds to finance the scheme is a prime cause for concern.
The scheme is estimated to require a massive 560 billion baht to finance, and it is still unknown where the money will come from, which could have far-reaching implications for public debt and impacts on the economy as a whole.
The government says the budget is likely to be smaller than earlier estimated because the number of people aged 16 and over who are eligible to receive the handouts is estimated to be around 54.8 million.
It also argues that the nation’s economy is not currently expanding to its fullest potential, and the digital wallet policy will be a driver of the economy, which is likely to expand by an average of 5% annually during the government’s four-year term.
Phichai Ratnatilaka Na Bhuket, a political scientist from the National Institute of Development Administration (Nida), has no doubt that despite the criticism, the Pheu Thai-led government will push ahead with the scheme but is likely to make adjustments to keep it afloat.
Without fine-tuning the handout scheme, the government should expect fiercer criticism and stronger resistance because now that the Covid-19 pandemic has passed, the giveaway is widely seen as unnecessary, according to the analyst.
He is sceptical that there is anyone in Pheu Thai, which floated the policy during the election campaign, who knows how to implement the policy effectively.
In his opinion, the digital wallet policy was hastily devised with the intention of appealing to voters in order for Pheu Thai to stage a landslide victory, rather than being thoroughly planned and its potential repercussions on the economy assessed.
There is also the real danger of how disastrous it would be if the wallet scheme were plagued with large-scale corruption like the rice-pledging programme under the Yingluck Shinawatra administration, which ran up massive financial losses.
“I think it would really be a blessing for the country if this policy was scrapped or so severely scrutinised that it can’t proceed,” said Mr Phichai.
The government is poised to implement the scheme in February next year.
It is being closely watched by state watchdogs like the National Anti-Corruption Commission and activists such as Dr Warong Dechkitvigrom, who made a name for himself by exposing the rice-pledging scheme debacle.
Dr Warong, also nicknamed “Dr Rice” for his heavy digging into the rice pledging policy, this week sprang into action by filing a petition with the Office of the Ombudsman asking it to look into the digital wallet policy and call on the Administrative Court to pull the plug on it.
