4-7-2023 (BANGKOK) According to research agency BloombergNEF, sales of electric vehicles (EVs) are continuing to gain market share globally, with Thailand and Indonesia emerging as key players in the ASEAN region. BloombergNEF’s senior analyst of Asia-Pacific transport, Allen Tom Abraham, predicts that the EV share of global new passenger sales will jump from 14% in 2022 to 30% in 2026.
EV sales are rapidly growing in many countries and regions, particularly in China and Europe. China commands a 52% market share, while in Europe, EV sales account for 42% of total car sales. Some European countries, such as the Nordic nations, have recorded very strong growth in the EV market, with a market share of 89%, while Germany stands at 59%. The US has also seen significant growth in EV sales, with the market share expected to reach 28% in 2026, up from 7.6% last year.
BloombergNEF believes that global EV sales, especially in the passenger car segment, will soar to almost 27 million units in 2026, up from 19.5 million units in 2022. Within ASEAN, Thailand and Indonesia are expected to be key players in the EV market, thanks to the nations’ support for the EV industry and the size of their populations.
Last year, Thailand’s EV sales stood at 51,000 units, and the number is expected to reach 2.9 million units by 2040. Mr Abraham notes that Thailand will be a significant player in the EV market, but after 2040, Indonesia will take the lead in the passenger car segment due to the large size of its market.
The Thai government’s promotion of more environmentally friendly cars is driving the rapid growth of the EV market in Thailand. In early 2022, the Thai cabinet approved a package of incentives, including tax cuts and subsidies, to promote EV consumption and production between 2022 and 2023.
BloombergNEF highlights that EV production requires a large investment in battery supply chains, with annual lithium battery demand expected to approach 5.7 terawatt-hours annually by 2035 in the economic transition scenario. In the net-zero scenario, new demand for lithium-ion batteries is expected to reach 244 TWh by 2050 if governments’ campaigns for a balance between greenhouse gas emissions and absorption are successful.
With growing EV markets in many countries, global oil demand for road transport is expected to drop to 35.5 million barrels a day by 2040, down from 42.6 million barrels a day last year, according to Sisi Tang, BloombergNEF’s head of downstream oil and petrochemical.
