22-11-2023 (22-11-2023) As the official registration of candidates for Indonesia’s 2024 presidential election has concluded, the countdown to the official campaign commencement on November 28 has begun. Each candidate pair has submitted their “vision and mission” documents to the National Election Commission, outlining their electoral promises. The question that arises is whether these promises are realistically achievable in the upcoming election.
Notably, there are some striking similarities among the candidates’ proposals. All pairs present eight fundamental “missions,” with the duo of Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka explicitly naming theirs Asta Cita, meaning “eight ideals.” This reference denotes the fact that Indonesia will soon elect its eighth president. These missions can be broadly categorized into four major areas: human capital development, economic advancement and infrastructure, environmental protection, and law and governance.
Anies Baswedan and Muhaimin Iskandar’s (AMIN) vision aims for a “just and prosperous Indonesia for all,” while Ganjar Pranowo and Mahfud MD envision an “excellent Indonesia” that realizes a “just and sustainable maritime nation.” Team Prabowo-Gibran emphasizes the need for Indonesians to come “together in an advanced Indonesia, to achieve a Golden Indonesia 2045.”
ALIGNMENT WITH INDONESIA 2045 VISION
The vision and mission documents of the candidates refer to Indonesia’s draft long-term development plan for 2025 to 2045, which is yet to be officially ratified as law. From a technocratic perspective, this alignment with the grand vision for “Indonesia 2045” is positive, as it demonstrates that the candidates’ proposed programs are in line with Indonesia’s aspirations to become one of the world’s largest economies by reaching 100 years of independence.
In terms of macro-economic targets, Team AMIN appears to be the most realistic. Their targets closely resemble the existing draft for Indonesia’s mid-term development planning for 2025 to 2029. The duo does not shy away from including specific numbers and details in their plan, which adds a strong technocratic flavor. However, their relatively less ambitious targets have led some to privately comment that a Baswedan administration might be too cautious or lack the ambition to aim for higher goals.
On the other hand, Team Ganjar-Mahfud has set targets and indicators for cross-sectoral development that generally surpass the national targets for 2025 to 2029. This signals optimism, which is reflected in their overall policy plan.
Team Prabowo-Gibran, however, does not seem to offer any groundbreaking proposals. Many have commented that they have merely scaled up or rebranded the initiatives of President Joko Widodo’s administration. For instance, they claim to introduce a child health card and an elderly health card scheme, which bear resemblance to the existing Indonesia Health Card and the national health insurance scheme.
PRIORITIZING HUMAN CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT
The candidates’ proposals primarily address a key challenge: the impending end of Indonesia’s demographic bonus. This justifies the prioritization of human capital development as a means to escape the middle-income trap. Several critical development issues face Indonesia, including health, education, social protection, research and innovation, and job creation.
Team AMIN’s plans for health encompass creating non-discriminatory, reliable, and efficient health services, achieving universal health coverage, and providing mental health services. Team Ganjar-Mahfud summarizes its plan as “One village, one primary health service, one doctor.”
Team Prabowo-Gibran presents seven proposals, most of which continue the initiatives of Jokowi’s administration, with the addition of health insurance for the elderly and a populist flagship program of providing free milk and lunch for pupils.
Regarding childhood stunting, Team AMIN aims to reduce its prevalence to 11%-12.5%, which is quite realistic. Team Ganjar-Mahfud ambitiously hopes to achieve a prevalence below 9%, while Team Prabowo-Gibran targets 80 million beneficiaries for their stunting prevention program. Currently, Indonesia’s stunting prevalence stands at 21.6%, with a target of 14% by 2024.
In the field of education, Anies Baswedan’s background as an academic and former minister of education likely explains his team’s detailed priorities, numbering 37. This significantly surpasses the five priorities of Team Ganjar-Mahfud and the six points of Team Prabowo-Gibran. However, in terms of substance, there is not much difference between them. The proposals focus on providing free education services, expanding scholarships and education funds, improving teacher quality and welfare, and revisiting the national curriculum.
On social protection, all candidates, especially Team Prabowo-Gibran, express eagerness to continue and enhance the initiatives started by President Widodo. Team Prabowo-Gibran believes they can reduce the poverty rate to below 6%by 2024, while Team AMIN and Team Ganjar-Mahfud aim for a poverty rate of around 7%.
ECONOMIC ADVANCEMENT AND INFRASTRUCTURE
Economic development and infrastructure are key areas of focus for all candidates, as they aim to accelerate Indonesia’s economic growth and improve connectivity. Team AMIN highlights the importance of equitable economic development, with a focus on promoting small and medium enterprises (SMEs), reducing income inequality, and supporting labor-intensive industries. Their plan includes specific targets for job creation, GDP growth, and poverty reduction.
Team Ganjar-Mahfud proposes comprehensive strategies to boost economic growth, including prioritizing investment in human capital, strengthening rural economies, and promoting digitalization and innovation. They also emphasize the importance of sustainable development and harnessing the potential of Indonesia’s maritime resources.
Team Prabowo-Gibran’s plans for economic advancement largely align with the existing programs of President Widodo’s administration, such as infrastructure development, attracting foreign investment, and enhancing connectivity. While they promise to continue and expand these initiatives, their proposals lack significant differentiation or innovation.
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION
Environmental protection and sustainable development feature prominently in the candidates’ visions. Team AMIN focuses on transitioning to a low-carbon economy, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and promoting renewable energy sources. They also stress the importance of sustainable land and forest management, as well as protecting Indonesia’s biodiversity.
Team Ganjar-Mahfud places great emphasis on environmental conservation, including efforts to restore degraded land and forests, protect marine ecosystems, and address climate change impacts. They also advocate for sustainable agriculture and responsible natural resource management.
Team Prabowo-Gibran’s environmental proposals largely mirror those of the current administration, with commitments to reforestation, peatland restoration, and reducing plastic waste. However, their vision lacks specific targets or innovative approaches to environmental protection.
LAW AND GOVERNANCE
All candidates recognize the importance of strengthening law and governance in Indonesia. Team AMIN emphasizes the need for a just and accountable government, promoting transparency, and fighting corruption. They also prioritize judicial reform and ensuring equal access to justice.
Team Ganjar-Mahfud proposes comprehensive measures to enhance legal certainty, protect human rights, and improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the legal system. They also emphasize the importance of good governance, including anti-corruption efforts and public service reforms.
Team Prabowo-Gibran’s proposals on law and governance are relatively broad, focusing on improving the quality of law enforcement and promoting a culture of lawfulness. They also highlight the importance of public participation and consultation in policy-making processes.
While evaluating the feasibility of electoral promises is challenging without detailed implementation plans, it is evident that all candidates share common priorities and concerns. Human capital development, economic advancement, environmental protection, and law and governance are the key areas they seek to address.
Team AMIN presents a cautious and technocratic approach, aligning their targets with existing development plans. Team Ganjar-Mahfud exhibits optimism and ambition, setting higher targets and emphasizing comprehensive strategies. Team Prabowo-Gibran’s proposals largely continue the current administration’s initiatives, lacking significant differentiation.
Ultimately, the feasibility and success of these electoral promises will depend on various factors, including the candidates’ ability to rally support, navigate political challenges, and effectively implement their proposed programs.
