21-5-2023 (New York) The latest assessment from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) highlights a concerning 66% probability that escalating global emissions and shifting weather patterns will push global temperatures beyond the critical 1.5C threshold, leading to irreversible transformations on our planet.
According to the annual climate update released on Wednesday, the UN cautions that within the next four years, there is a significant likelihood of surpassing the crucial 1.5C limit due to human-induced carbon emissions and an impending El Niño event projected for later this year. Additionally, the WMO predicts a staggering 98% chance that at least one year between now and 2027 will surpass the record-breaking temperatures of 2016, which occurred during an exceptionally intense El Niño occurrence.
Anticipated El Niño Southern Oscillation during the period from December to February next year, known to transport more heat from the oceans into the atmosphere, will propel global temperatures to unprecedented levels, triggering unprecedented heatwaves. Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the UK Met Office, affirms that the impacts of El Niño events are intensifying, along with the effects of climate change itself: “When you combine these two factors, we are likely to witness unparalleled heatwaves during the next [event],” he told the Guardian.
However, WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas emphasizes that the report does not imply a permanent breach of the 1.5C threshold established in the Paris Agreement, which refers to long-term warming over many years. Nevertheless, the WMO sounds the alarm that temporary breaches of the 1.5C level will occur with increasing frequency.
The WMO report also delves into the projected consequences of escalating temperatures. A study published last year revealed that the Arctic has warmed almost four times faster than the global average over the past 43 years. The latest WMO report warns that the polar region will experience even greater warming compared to many other parts of the world, with the temperature anomaly expected to be three times larger than the global average over the next five northern hemisphere winters.
