14-12-2023 (BANGKOK) Thailand’s economic growth is expected to rebound in the coming years, with a forecasted growth rate of 2.5% in 2023 and 3.2% in 2024, according to the World Bank. This recovery is expected to be driven by a rebound in tourism, exports, and sustained private consumption.
The growth outlook for 2023 and 2024 has been revised downward from 3.4% and 3.5%, respectively, due to a contraction in exports and ongoing fiscal consolidation. However, the World Bank remains optimistic about Thailand’s economic prospects, citing the potential for a digital wallet program to boost near-term growth by 0.5 to 1% over the two-year period.
Tourism is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2025, despite the slowdown in the Chinese economy. Private consumption is also expected to remain a key driver of growth, while exports are forecast to rebound due to favorable global trade trends.
The World Bank’s Thailand Economic Monitor report highlights the potential for the digital wallet program to have a positive impact on the economy. If implemented, the program could amount to 2.7% of gross domestic product (GDP) and boost growth by 0.5 to 1% over the two-year period. However, the report also notes that the program may increase the fiscal deficit to 4% to 5% of GDP and public debt to 65% to 66% of GDP.
Despite the positive outlook, the World Bank also highlights several downside risks to the economy, including heightened geopolitical conflict and high oil prices, which could lead to another inflationary surge in Thailand due to its high dependency on energy imports.
