12-4-2024 (MANILA) In recent times, the relationship between the United States and the Philippines has undergone a remarkable transformation, fuelled by escalating tensions with China in the Asia-Pacific region. Since Ferdinand Marcos Jr. assumed the presidency in June 2022, the two nations have fostered an increasingly robust partnership, driven by shared concerns over China’s growing assertiveness in the contested waters of the South China Sea.
The long-standing territorial disputes in this strategic maritime area have become a focal point of contention, with repeated confrontations between Chinese and Philippine vessels near disputed reefs raising fears of a wider conflict involving the United States and its allies. Addressing this pressing issue was a top priority during Thursday’s inaugural trilateral summit between the United States, Japan, and the Philippines – two crucial treaty allies in the region.
As the dynamics in the Asia-Pacific shift, the deepening of defence ties between the Philippines and the United States has become increasingly critical, prompting questions about the extent to which Washington would intervene militarily to defend its Philippine counterparts.
The Mutual Defence Treaty of 1951 remains a cornerstone of the alliance, and top officials in the Biden administration have consistently asserted that “an armed attack” against Philippine public vessels, aircraft, armed forces, or coastguard anywhere in the South China Sea would invoke this treaty obligation. This unwavering commitment was further solidified in 2014 when a defence cooperation agreement granted US troops access to five Philippine military bases, a pact that had stalled under the previous pro-China administration of Rodrigo Duterte but was revived and expanded by Marcos, adding four additional sites.
“Given the current geopolitical situation, the messaging of the US commitment to the Philippines is more clarified and more coherent,” observed Andrea Wong, a non-resident research fellow at the Institute for Indo-Pacific Affairs in New Zealand.
The South China Sea, spanning over three million square kilometres, is of immense strategic importance, serving as a vital maritime link between the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Its shipping lanes facilitate trillions of dollars in annual trade between East Asia and Europe and the Middle East, while its seabed is believed to harbour vast untapped oil and gas reserves, though estimates vary considerably.
Tensions over this waterway have turned it into a veritable powder keg, with many fearing that a miscalculation or accident could ignite a military conflict. For decades, various countries have staked competing claims to the South China Sea and its hundreds of reefs and islands, with China and Taiwan asserting sovereignty over nearly all of it, while Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei each have overlapping stakes in parts of the sea.
While the United States holds no territorial claim over the waters or features, it regularly conducts patrols in the area, asserting its interest in maintaining freedom of trade, unimpeded commerce, and freedom of navigation and overflight. “If a big country like China were to control the whole South China Sea, then most likely other countries who want to pass through there will have to ask permission,” Wong cautioned.
Beijing’s claims to the South China Sea are based largely on Chinese maps dating back to the 1940s that depict a U-shaped dashed line encroaching on the coasts of other countries, a claim dismissed as having no legal basis by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague in 2016. China, however, has ignored this ruling and remains the most assertive claimant in pressing its claims.
The Duterte years witnessed a rocky period in US-Philippine ties as Manila pivoted away from Washington and towards Beijing in pursuit of investment and trade opportunities. Duterte even threatened to terminate the 2014 defence agreement allowing US troops on Philippine soil. However, Marcos’ ascension to power has dramatically altered the course, with Manila publicly challenging Chinese actions in the waterway and granting the United States access to more Philippine military bases.
President Joe Biden has reiterated the United States’ “ironclad” commitment to defend the Philippines – a superlative multiple US officials have used in talks with their Philippine counterparts over the past two years.
