11-10-2024 (HANOI) In a strategic move that echoes China’s controversial tactics, Vietnam has significantly expanded its presence in the hotly contested South China Sea, particularly within the Spratly Islands archipelago. This development, occurring largely out of the international spotlight, marks a new chapter in the complex geopolitical dynamics of the region.
Satellite imagery analysis reveals a dramatic transformation of Vietnam’s outposts in the Spratly group. What were once small, isolated military stations have rapidly evolved into more substantial installations complete with newly constructed trenches, harbours, and expanded land masses. Harrison Prator, a satellite imagery analyst, notes, “In just three years, Vietnam has increased its artificial land tenfold in the Spratly Islands.”
The expansion mirrors China’s earlier island-building efforts, employing similar techniques such as cutter suction dredging. This process, while effective for land reclamation, has drawn criticism from environmental groups due to its destructive impact on marine ecosystems. The cloudy waters surrounding these construction sites bear witness to the sediment disruption that threatens nearby coral reefs.
Vietnam’s motivations for this rapid expansion are multifaceted. The South China Sea is a critical waterway, with approximately one-third of global trade passing through its lanes annually. Moreover, the region is rich in disputed oil, gas, and fishery resources, making it a prize coveted by multiple nations.
The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) grants coastal states rights to resources within a 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ). However, China’s expansive “nine-dash line” claim overlaps with several nations’ EEZs, including Vietnam’s, creating a source of ongoing tension.
Vietnam’s island-building efforts appear aimed at enhancing its military capabilities in the region. Newly constructed features include defensive trenches, artillery placements, and improved maritime facilities. On NamYit Island, for instance, a newly built harbour and boat ramp significantly boost Vietnam’s ability to maintain a sustained presence in the area.
Intriguingly, China has not responded militarily to Vietnam’s expansion, despite its aggressive tactics against other claimants like the Philippines. This restraint highlights the complex nature of Sino-Vietnamese relations and Vietnam’s delicate balancing act in regional diplomacy.
Vietnam’s “bamboo diplomacy” – flexible yet firmly rooted – has seen it maintain close ties with strategic rivals including the United States, China, and Russia. This diplomatic finesse may explain the relatively muted international reaction to its South China Sea expansion.
However, military analysts warn that this delicate equilibrium may not last indefinitely. As one expert puts it, “It’s not matched China yet, but it’s speeding up and we don’t know when it’s going to stop.” The potential for escalation remains a concern, given the historical conflicts between Vietnam and China.
