25-12-2024 (HANOI) Vietnam faces an unprecedented demographic challenge as birth rates hit a 12-year low, threatening to reshape the nation’s social and economic landscape, health officials warned yesterday.
The Ministry of Health’s Population Authority reports a stark decline in fertility rates across 21 provinces and cities, with the southeastern region experiencing a dramatic drop from 2.9 children per woman in 1999 to just 1.56 today. The affected areas, primarily in the southeastern, Mekong Delta and central coastal regions, represent nearly 40% of Vietnam’s total population.
“This is not merely a statistical concern, but a fundamental challenge to our nation’s future,” said Deputy Health Minister Do Xuan Tuyen. “Population dynamics are crucial to both our immediate development and long-term national security.”
The situation mirrors a global trend that has proven resistant to intervention. Whilst 55 countries worldwide have implemented pro-natalist policies, efforts to reverse declining fertility rates have shown limited success, even in developed nations.
What sets Vietnam apart is the unprecedented speed of its demographic transition. Whilst Western nations typically required centuries to move from an ageing to an aged population structure, Vietnam is projected to complete this transformation in just 26 years. Experts predict the country will reach “aged” status by 2036 and “super-aged” by 2049.
The implications are far-reaching. Without effective intervention, Vietnam could face negative population growth by 2054, triggering severe labour shortages and economic challenges. The Ministry of Health is currently studying international best practices, particularly from Asia-Pacific neighbours, to develop targeted policies maintaining replacement fertility rates.
Vietnam’s Population Strategy towards 2030 aims to stabilise birth rates and achieve a natural balance in the sex ratio at birth. However, officials emphasise the need for carefully calibrated interventions to avoid the fate of wealthy nations where fertility rates have proven resistant to recovery.
“We must learn from global experiences whilst developing solutions tailored to Vietnam’s unique circumstances,” Tuyen added. “The window for effective action is narrow, and the stakes could not be higher.”
