24-2-2024 (KYIV) Ukraine marked the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, with the country appearing more vulnerable than ever since the early days of Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War Two. Despite predictions and the Kremlin’s expectations, Ukraine’s 40 million people managed to repel the much larger enemy force and prevent an outright defeat when Russian tanks and soldiers advanced towards Kyiv.
However, as the war enters its third year, the flow of international aid and military supplies has slowed down, impacting the battlefield where Kyiv’s summer counter-offensive faltered, and Moscow continues to gain territorial advantages. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, in an effort to address the situation, welcomes Western leaders on February 24 to discuss security guarantees, sanctions against Russia, and other pressing issues.
US President Joe Biden remains a steadfast ally, but the release of $61 billion in aid is currently hindered by political disputes in Washington. Looking ahead to the end of 2024, the US elections may bring a change in president and policy towards Ukraine and its ongoing conflict with Russia, which could further complicate the outlook for the coming years.
During a trip to the United States in November, President Zelenskiy invited Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, a vocal critic of US support for Kyiv, to visit Ukraine and witness the devastating impact of Russia’s war firsthand. Zelenskiy also warned US politicians that Russia, led by President Vladimir Putin, may not stop at Ukraine’s borders if it achieves victory.
President Putin dismisses such claims as baseless and portrays the war as a broader struggle with the United States, alleging that the US aims to dismantle Russia. The Western world, however, views the invasion as an unjustified act of aggression that must be resisted.
In addition to hosting foreign dignitaries, President Zelenskiy will participate in a call with G7 leaders on February 24. Commemorative events will take place across Ukraine, including a service in Bucha, north of Kyiv, to honor those who lost their lives in some of the conflict’s worst alleged war crimes. Ukraine’s prosecutor general announced on February 23 that investigations into over 122,000 suspected war crimes cases have been launched in the past two years, a claim denied by Russia.
The initial shock of the invasion has gradually turned into weariness as the world witnessed initial Russian gains and a remarkable Ukrainian counter-offensive in late 2022, which has now transformed into a slow, attritional trench warfare reminiscent of World War One. Thousands of soldiers are losing their lives under heavy artillery fire, fighting for mere kilometers of land.
Both sides have developed extensive and increasingly advanced fleets of unmanned vehicles for surveillance and attack, setting a precedent for future conflicts. Russia, with a larger population to replenish its ranks and a larger military budget, may favor a protracted war, although the costs have been significant for Moscow as it navigates sanctions and an increasing reliance on China.
Ukraine’s position, on the other hand, is far more precarious. Villages, towns, and cities have been decimated, troops are exhausted, ammunition is running low, and Russian missiles and drones rain down almost daily. In early February, Russia achieved its biggest victory in nine months by capturing the eastern town of Avdiivka, concluding months of deadly urban combat.
Nevertheless, President Zelenskiy remains defiant ahead of the anniversary, expressing his conviction that victory awaits through unity and support. Tens of thousands of troops have been killed on both sides, with thousands more wounded, and numerous Ukrainian civilians have perished. Moscow claims to exclusively target military and strategic objectives.
The scale of devastation in Ukraine is staggering. A recent World Bank study estimated that rebuilding the country’s economy could cost nearly $500 billion. Two million housing units have been damaged or destroyed, and nearly six million people have fled abroad.
In addition to securing funds and arms to sustain the war effort, President Zelenskiy is pushing for legislation in parliament to mobilize up to half a million more troops, a target that some economists believe could paralyze the economy.
Russia’s finances have shown resilience thus far in the face of unprecedented sanctions. While natural gas exports have declined, oil shipments have remained steady, largely due to increased purchases from India and China. Russia’s GDP expanded by 3.6% in 2023, although some economists based in Russia caution that this growth was driven by a surge in defense spending and predict stagnation or recession in the near future.
Despite potential economic challenges, President Putin is expected to secure a resounding victory in the upcoming March elections, enjoying broad support for his handling of the conflict, which the Kremlin refers to as a “special military operation.” Over the past two years, authorities have cracked down heavily on any form of dissent regarding the conflict. On February 16, President Putin’s most prominent domestic opponent, Alexei Navalny, died in an Arctic penal colony where he was serving a 30-year sentence.
On February 23, President Putin addressed troops fighting in Ukraine as Russia observed Defender of the Fatherland Day. He hailed them as heroes battling for “truth and justice” and paid homage to fallen soldiers by laying a wreath at the tomb of the unknown soldier at the foot of the Kremlin wall.
