7-9-2023 (BANGKOK) It appears the return of Thaksin Shinawatra to Thai politics is imminent, after the controversial billionaire’s prison sentences were dramatically reduced by King Maha Vajiralongkorn last week. Observers suggest the 74 year old’s advanced age and short remaining term mean he could qualify for parole any day now from his comfortable hospital suite in downtown Bangkok. However, the role and level of influence the former premier is able to exert moving forward remains uncertain, in a Thai political landscape that has evolved markedly since his 2006 ousting during a military coup.
Just one day after flying into Bangkok on August 22nd following years in exile, Thaksin found himself sentenced to 8 years imprisonment in absentia for various corruption related convictions. Yet within hours he had been transferred from a solitary cell in Bangkok Remand Prison to the private medical wing of a city hospital, overlooking a prestigious golf course. Remarkably, only 8 days later the court reduced his term to a mere single year. While the moves suggest improved ties between Thaksin’s Pheu Thai party and Thailand’s conservative establishment now in government, they do little to clarify how influential a figure the political veteran will prove in today’s changed political environment.
There is little doubt Thaksin remains a hugely popular figure amongst his loyal base, having spearheaded populist policies as premier from 2001-2006 that expanded access to healthcare and targeted rural poverty. As founder and spiritual leader of Pheu Thai, seen by many as a reincarnation of his disbanded Thai Rak Thai party, he is expected to provide strategic guidance behind the scenes. However, current laws would bar the convict from direct political participation, and changing public sentiments pose challenges to any comeback bid. “His time has passed – he definitely won’t re-enter politics directly. But he will likely play an informal advising role and help Pheu Thai strengthen strategically,” suggests Dr Yuttaporn Issarachai of Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University.
Following May’s election, Pheu Thai broke its progressive alliance with the electoral winning Move Forward party, and instead partnered with pro-establishment factions to place their candidate Srettha Thavisin in the premiership. The move infuriated reformists but reassured conservatives, pushing Move Forward to the opposition benches. With its new government allies able to guarantee his security, observers argue the time is perfect for Thaksin’s safe return to aid his party. “Nobody will throw him back in jail or block a pardon process now,” notes Dr Punchada Sirivunnabood of Mahidol University, suggesting May 2023 elections could be Pheu Thai’s last chance at victory for some time if Thaksin did not return to boost strategy.
A reduced one year sentence and hospital accommodation rather than prison also imply an improved relationship between Thaksin’s clan and the country’s conservative power brokers following years of discord. However, the extent of control the deposed billionaire can now exert from the sidelines is debatable, as fifteen years abroad means Thaksin finds himself in a very different Thailand. “For most Thais he is no longer as influential, having been absent so long. The new generation doesn’t feel the same attachment to his achievements of the past,” explains Dr Punchada.
Indeed, Pheu Thai’s post-election maneuvers damaged its pro-democracy credentials amongst reformists, marginalising once allied Move Forward and positioning the party more as the Shinawatras’ vehicle than a unified democratic force. Meanwhile, young, politically engaged citizens have come of age not knowing Thailand’s pre-coup political landscape which boosted Thaksin to power. While he will aim to provide strategic backing, commanding the same public support and awe appears impossible in today’s changed environment where Move Forward have emerged as Pheu Thai’s progressive rival. The middle class and elites also have less reliance on Thaksin and more trust in new political mechanisms.
