28-1-2024 (BANGKOK) As foreign ministers convene in the ancient royal capital of Luang Prabang for high-level meetings this weekend, optimism is scarce that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) can make headway on its most pressing challenges under new chair Laos.
The 10-member bloc, comprised of divergent economies like regional powerhouses Indonesia and Singapore alongside smaller nations such as Laos, has struggled to confront escalating tensions in the South China Sea and the ongoing crisis in Myanmar.
Hopes were high that Indonesia could employ its regional clout during its 2023 chairmanship to achieve breakthroughs on both matters. But with little progress made, the baton has now passed to Laos, one of the bloc’s smallest and poorest countries.
“There were so many expectations when Indonesia started its presidency and some of those expectations fell short,” said Shafiah Muhibat, an expert at Jakarta’s Centre for Strategic and International Studies. “So with Indonesia moving on to Laos, I think the expectations are quite low in terms of what Laos can actually do.”
After the Myanmar military overthrew the elected government in February 2021, ASEAN laid out a “Five-Point Consensus” peace plan. But the junta has largely ignored it, even as violence has escalated to the point some say Myanmar is in a state of civil war.
Indonesia touted over 180 “engagements” with Myanmar stakeholders to no avail. The consensus calls for an immediate ceasefire, dialogue, mediation by a special ASEAN envoy, humanitarian aid and a visit to Myanmar by the envoy to meet all parties.
“ASEAN actually has very little leverage on Myanmar; Myanmar doesn’t care about ASEAN at all,” said Muhammad Faizal of Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. “They don’t give a hoot about the five-point consensus.”
During its chairmanship, Indonesia established a formal office for the special envoy role and initiated a “troika” mechanism involving past, present and future chairs to support Laos. But some experts believe Laos may approach Myanmar from its unique perspective as the first ASEAN neighbour to share a border since the coup.
“They want to maintain the cross-border security cooperation with the Myanmar junta, and think that it is probably in their interest to make sure that the junta remains the authority in Myanmar. Though, in reality, that may not be the case,” Faizal said.
Currently, the junta is losing territory to a concerted offensive by ethnic militias, some believed to have China’s tacit support due to cross-border crime. As one of ASEAN’s closest partners of Beijing, observers are watching if Laos tries engaging China’s help to resolve the conflict.
When it comes to the South China Sea, Laos is unlikely to break new ground either, experts say. Several ASEAN members are locked in heated territorial disputes with Beijing, which claims sovereignty over almost the entire strategic waterway.
Tensions escalated last year between China and the Philippines, sparking fears of a major conflict drawing in ally the United States. Philippine officials have grown frustrated with what they see as a lack of ASEAN support.
But tiny, landlocked Laos has cultivated increasingly close ties with Beijing, taking on massive Chinese infrastructure loans. “They will have come under a lot of pressure from China, because they’re basically dependent upon China for everything,” Faizal said.
During its last chairmanship in 2016, Laos managed to strike a compromise where all parties were equally unhappy. But its deepened reliance on China means few expect Laos to rock the boat this time around.
“I believe they will probably just try to maintain the status quo — not doing more, but just maintaining what is there now,” Faizal said.
