13-6-2023 (KUALA LUMPUR) The upcoming state elections in six states could witness a voter swing from Pakatan Harapan to Perikatan Nasional, leaving the Chinese voter in a state of uncertainty, according to the Merdeka Centre. This potential scenario raises several questions regarding the voting behavior of non-Malays, the conduct of Chinese voters, and their turnout at the polls.
To understand this potential swing, it is crucial to examine the voting trends from the 15th General Election (GE15). In Selangor, Perikatan, consisting of PAS and Bersatu, gained significant support from new and young voters who were added to the electoral roll following the implementation of Undi18, which lowered the voting age to 18 and enabled automatic voter registration. This surge in support helped Perikatan secure the six parliamentary constituencies it currently holds in Selangor and narrowed the gap between Pakatan and Perikatan votes in other parts of the state. This trend indicates the substantial impact Perikatan had in GE15, particularly among first-time Malay voters.
Furthermore, internal divisions within Umno, including defections to Bersatu and PAS, revealed deep disillusionment within the party. Alongside the emergence of a new wave of voters, the disintegration of Umno led to a “green wave” that propelled PAS to secure the largest majority of 49 seats in Parliament.
Shortly after the formation of the unity government following GE15, independent Senator Datuk Dr Mohd Naim Mokhtar was appointed as Minister of Religious Affairs in the Prime Minister’s Department. Dr Mohd Naim’s announcement regarding the reintroduction of RUU355, a proposed amendment to expand the powers of the Syariah Courts, raised concerns and apprehensions across communities. The reintroduction of this controversial amendment by the Pakatan government triggered alarm bells, as it was initially proposed by PAS president Tan Sri Abdul Hadi Awang in 2016 but faced significant objections from Muslims and non-Muslims alike. The revival of RUU355 by the Pakatan government through Dr Mohd Naim’s involvement further exacerbated concerns about a potential Hudud-style administration.
Additionally, the Pakatan government’s decision to drop the appeal against the use of the word “Allah” by non-Muslims has generated fear and criticism. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim seeks to address the contradictory laws that prohibit the use of the word in Peninsular Malaysia while allowing its conditional usage in East Malaysia. The final directives on this matter will be sought from the Council of Rulers, whose role is to uphold and preserve Malay customs and the Islamic religion. This flip-flopping on the issue has eroded trust in the Pakatan government among Christians who believed the matter was settled and Muslims who perceive Anwar’s move as populist and inconsiderate.
The credibility deficit of the Pakatan government began from day one, with the appointment of Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi as deputy prime minister despite severe attacks and calls for his resignation from his own party members during GE15. This is just one example of the deep-rooted issues plaguing the ruling coalition. The loss of trust in PKR and suspicions surrounding Umno have contributed to growing support for Perikatan among Malay-majority urban areas, particularly in Selangor.
Considering the above factors, the apparent “green wave” driven by Islamist sentiments may lead to a swing in favor of Perikatan. This raises concerns about the sentiment of Chinese voters. Disappointment over the RUU355 issue is evident within the Chinese community, as is the fear of increasing Islamist influence in the public sphere and its impact on the private lives of non-Muslims.
Umno’s recent move to invite the presidents of 19 political parties, including PKR and DAP, to its Annual General Assembly further complicates the situation for Pakatan. This not only marginalizes Umno’s traditional partners MCA and MIC but also confirms the continued alliance of PKR and DAP with a crumbling institution. DAP’s call for members in the six states facing elections to vote for Umno in order to sustain the unity government has created uncertainty and unfamiliarity among voters. Reassuring voters of a stable identity may prove challenging for DAP, considering the concessions made to the Pakatan coalition’s objectives, potentially leading to increased disillusionment among Chinese voters.
It is worth noting that while Chinese voters may be dissatisfied with Pakatan and DAP, they are likely even more apprehensive about Perikatan and PAS. This dilemma could result in a low voter turnout, as Chinese voters may perceive themselves to have limited choices.
However, a significant portion of the Chinese electorate, particularly the younger generation, possesses a sophisticated understanding of Malaysian politics and considers Malaysia as their homeland. These voters may be more willing to accept compromises and recognize that certain issues can be championed while others are best left untouched. They may view the participation of Pakatan component parties in the Umno general assembly, and vice versa, as a step towards greater openness and collaboration.
In GE15, there were 6.9 million new voters due to Undi18 and automatic voter registration. However, only 16% of these voters were between 18 and 20 years old, with the majority falling in the 21-50-year-old age bracket. Among the new voters, Malays constituted 60%, Chinese accounted for 25%, and Indians represented 7% of the electorate.
In Selangor, which has a population of over 7 million, the number of registered voters in GE15 increased by 52.28%, reaching a total of 3,677,848 eligible voters. Adult voters aged 21-59 formed the largest voting bloc at 76.29%, followed by senior citizens aged 60 and above at 21.33%, and youths aged 18 to 20 at 7.44%.
Based on these statistics, the total number of Chinese youth voters in Selangor during GE15 was estimated to be around 60,000 to 70,000. Studies by the Yusof Ishak Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS) suggest that the impact of a Chinese youth voter’s choice will depend on whether they come from a prosperous, urban, Chinese-majority state like Penang or Selangor, or a Malay-majority semi-urban area with lower economic development. In the latter case, the Chinese youth vote may have a more significant influence.
DAP currently holds 16 seats in the Selangor state assembly, which they aim to defend while contesting two additional seats in Malay-majority areas. The outcome of the elections in Selangor will set the context for the remaining state elections in Penang and Negeri Sembilan, with PAS-led Kedah, Kelantan, and Terengganu expected to lean towards Perikatan.
Regardless of the election results, the issues faced by the Chinese voter are likely to persist. Understanding the concerns that continually emerge and effectively addressing them will be crucial in motivating Chinese voters to participate in the electoral process.
The Malaysian Chinese community is confronted with a critical existential question that requires immediate attention for the sake of future generations: Should they stay or should they go? Some Chinese groups are gradually hedging their bets on both Pakatan and Perikatan while gradually divesting their interests in Malaysia. Another alternative involves continuing to invest in Malaysia if the China Belt and Road projects materialize, while seeking residence elsewhere in the world. Those who lack such resources can only hope for the best and rely on the public-spiritedness and selfless actions of their DAP and MCA representatives, who strive to ensure a stable and inclusive government in Malaysia.
