28-8-2024 (BANGKOK) Thailand’s political landscape witnessed a significant event last week as former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra addressed a high-profile dinner gathering, offering insights into his vision for the nation. The event, which drew Thailand’s elite from business, politics, and diplomacy, has sparked intense speculation about the extent of Thaksin’s influence over his daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s newly formed government.
The dinner, attended by 1,500 guests including billionaires Sarath Ratanavadi and Dhanin Chearavanont, came just days after 38-year-old Paetongtarn secured a parliamentary vote to become Thailand’s youngest-ever prime minister. The overwhelming interest in the event, with organisers having to turn down additional requests for invitations, underscores the enduring appeal and influence of the 75-year-old Thaksin.
During his address, Thaksin touched upon a wide array of issues facing contemporary Thailand, from chronic public and household debt to political matters, including a recent royal defamation case against him. He also confidently stated that there would be no military coup against his daughter’s administration, promising to help her “clean up any rubbish” he identifies.
While Thaksin insisted he would not interfere with his daughter’s duties as prime minister, his statement that he “can’t stay still and look at problems in the country without caring” has been widely interpreted as a signal of his intended involvement. This perception contrasts with Paetongtarn’s assertion of independence, telling reporters, “There’s certainly no such influence. I’m my own person.”
Political analysts view the dinner speech as a strategic move to reassure Thai business elites about Paetongtarn’s leadership. Olarn Thinbangtieo, deputy dean of Burapha University’s Faculty of Political Science and Law, commented, “The speech was aimed at allaying concerns from Thai business elites about her leadership.”
The financial markets have responded positively to these political developments. Since Paetongtarn’s nomination as prime minister on August 15, Thailand’s benchmark SET Index has risen by 5.8%, with a 1% gain following Thaksin’s dinner talk. The Thai baht has also strengthened, trading near its highest levels since July 2023.
Burin Adulwattana, managing director and chief economist at Kasikorn Research Centre, noted, “Thaksin’s words hold more weight in the eyes of financial markets. Someone influential who can guide the government in the right direction would be seen as a welcome addition. Pheu Thai needs a wow factor to solve economic problems.”
However, the Shinawatra family faces challenges. Paetongtarn’s Cabinet formation has been delayed due to increased scrutiny in the wake of her predecessor’s dismissal for an ethics violation. There are also concerns about how the inexperienced Paetongtarn will navigate the complexities of Thailand’s $500 billion economy.
Many expect Paetongtarn to lean on her father’s experience, particularly his “Thaksinomics” approach, which drove annual growth to 5.36% during his tenure from 2001 to 2006. A recent survey by the National Institute of Development Administration found that 74.4% of respondents believe it is “impossible” or “not likely” that Paetongtarn would govern without depending on Thaksin.
