16-8-2024 (BANGKOK) Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the 37-year-old daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, has been elected as Thailand’s new leader. This marks a dramatic comeback for the Shinawatra family and signals potential shifts in the nation’s political landscape.
Paetongtarn’s rise to power comes during a turbulent period for Thai politics. Her predecessor, Srettha Thavisin, was recently removed from office by the Constitutional Court, sparking further tensions between the Pheu Thai Party, associated with the Shinawatra family, and Thailand’s conservative establishment. The court’s decision, linked to a ministerial appointment, has led to growing concerns about the stability of the country’s democratic institutions and the actual distribution of power within Thailand.
The election of Paetongtarn, a relatively inexperienced politician, is not just notable for her age but also for its implications within the broader context of Thai political history. She becomes the third member of the Shinawatra family to serve as prime minister, following her father Thaksin and her aunt Yingluck. This continued presence of the Shinawatras in high office highlights the enduring support for the family, particularly among voters in Thailand’s rural north and northeast regions.
However, Paetongtarn’s new role also revives fears about the Shinawatra family’s dominance in Thai politics and the potential for renewed clashes with the country’s traditional power centres, such as the military and royalist elites. Observers are closely watching to see if Paetongtarn will carve out her own political identity or if she will be seen as a representative of her father’s ambitions.
Thaksin Shinawatra, who returned to Thailand in August 2023 after 15 years in self-imposed exile, continues to cast a long shadow over the country’s political scene. His return coincided with the appointment of Srettha Thavisin as prime minister, a move viewed by many as a carefully negotiated settlement between Pheu Thai and its former military-aligned adversaries. However, recent developments suggest that this period of relative calm may be short-lived.
Paetongtarn’s elevation to prime minister is particularly striking given the legal challenges facing her father. Just days before her election, Thaksin was formally charged with lèse-majesté, a serious offence in Thailand that can lead to lengthy prison sentences. The juxtaposition of Paetongtarn’s political ascent and Thaksin’s legal troubles raises critical questions about the future of Thai politics.
As she takes office, Paetongtarn will need to navigate a complex web of political alliances and rivalries that have long defined her family’s involvement in Thai politics. Can she govern effectively while balancing the populist policies that have been the Pheu Thai Party’s trademark with the need to maintain stability and avoid conflict with conservative forces?
Another pressing issue is the extent of Thaksin’s influence on the new government. Despite his legal troubles, many believe that he will continue to exert considerable power from behind the scenes. This perception could undermine Paetongtarn’s authority and fuel speculation that she is merely a figurehead for her father’s political ambitions.
Thailand’s economy, still struggling to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, is at a critical juncture. Paetongtarn inherits ambitious economic policies from the previous government, including a controversial plan to distribute financial handouts to millions of Thais. How she manages these initiatives, and whether she can attract foreign investment while maintaining fiscal discipline, will be crucial tests of her leadership.
Paetongtarn also faces the challenge of addressing Thailand’s deepening social divisions. The country remains polarised between supporters of the Shinawatra family’s populist agenda and those who see the family as a threat to traditional Thai values and institutions. Bridging this divide will require deft political skills and a willingness to engage in genuine dialogue with all segments of society.
One of the most sensitive issues facing Paetongtarn’s government will be its stance on lèse-majesté laws, which have been a source of significant tension in recent years. The Move Forward Party, which won the popular vote in the 2023 election but was blocked from forming a government, has called for reform of these laws. However, such proposals have been fiercely resisted by conservative forces, and the party itself has faced threats of dissolution. How Paetongtarn handles this issue could define her premiership and shape the future of Thai democracy.
The role of the military, which has a history of intervening in Thai politics, including coups that removed both Thaksin and Yingluck from power, remains a key factor. Although the current political arrangement includes pro-military parties, the potential for military intervention remains a constant backdrop to Thailand’s political landscape. Paetongtarn will need to balance asserting civilian control with avoiding actions that could provoke the military.
As Paetongtarn Shinawatra steps into her new role, Thailand faces a series of crucial decisions. The country’s political future is uncertain, with possibilities ranging from a new era of stability to a return to the protests, coups, and constitutional crises that have characterised much of its recent history. Paetongtarn’s ability to navigate these challenges will not only determine her political fate but also influence the course of Thai democracy in the years ahead.
In the coming months, all eyes will be on Bangkok as Paetongtarn works to establish her authority and implement her vision for Thailand. Can she emerge from her father’s shadow and forge her own path? Will she be able to reconcile with Thailand’s traditional power structures while fulfilling the populist promises that have been central to her family’s political success? And most importantly, can she bring about the lasting political reconciliation that has eluded Thailand for so long?
As the latest chapter in the Shinawatra dynasty unfolds, its impact on Thailand and the wider region remains to be seen. What is certain, however, is that the ongoing political drama in Bangkok will continue to captivate global attention as Thailand once again becomes the centre of a crucial struggle for the future of Southeast Asian democracy.
