31-5-2024 (BANGKOK) The decision by Thailand’s attorney general to indict former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra on lese majeste charges has reignited speculation about power struggles and backroom deals within the country’s complex political landscape. According to some political observers, the indictment could be a warning from the conservative establishment, signaling that Thaksin has failed to honor an alleged deal with the old power groups that still hold sway in Thai politics.
Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at King Prajadhipok’s Institute, told the Bangkok Post that the indictment serves as a reminder to Thaksin not to overstep boundaries set by the conservative establishment. “The lese majeste case is meant to be a warning to Thaksin not to step out of line. The deal must be honored,” he said, referring to what he claims is a power-sharing agreement between Thaksin and the old guard.
Thaksin, long regarded as the de facto leader of the ruling Pheu Thai Party, has been perceived as wielding increasing influence in politics since his return to Thailand, despite not holding any official government position. This has reportedly unsettled the conservative establishment, who fear Thaksin may be exercising too much power.
“They are afraid that Thaksin will exercise too much power. So they have to do something to deter him,” Stithorn explained. However, he added that Thaksin is unlikely to face severe consequences, suggesting that the indictment is more of a warning shot. “They don’t want to get rid of him. They just need a guarantee that the deal will be honored.”
Surachart Bamrungsuk, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University, echoed this view, attributing the indictment to a potential collapse of the alleged deal between Thaksin and the old power groups. “Thaksin’s increasing role in politics has led to problems. It remains to be seen whether he will have to tone down his role or if the negotiations will need to be renewed,” Surachart said.
However, not all observers subscribe to the theory of a backroom deal gone awry. Thanaporn Sriyakul, director of the Political and Public Policy Analysis Institute, praised the attorney general for carrying out his duty in indicting Thaksin, dismissing the notion of a “collapsed deal.”
The focus now shifts to Thaksin’s upcoming court appearance on June 18, where he is expected to be indicted on lese majeste and computer crime charges stemming from an interview he gave in Seoul in 2015. Observers will be closely watching whether he is granted bail or sent to jail, as has been the case with many other lese majeste suspects in the past.
Amidst the speculation and political maneuvering, Pheu Thai list MP Wisut Chainaroon downplayed the impact of the indictment on the ruling party, asserting that Thaksin’s legal troubles should not be linked to the party since he does not hold any government office.
