26-2-2025 (BANGKOK) In Thailand’s troubled Deep South provinces, two decades of violence have created an enduring legacy of pain that continues to shape regional politics. The conflict, which erupted into its modern phase in January 2004, has transformed the region through cycles of violence, failed policies, and intermittent peace efforts that have yet to deliver lasting stability.
“There is no separatism, no ideological terrorists, only petty criminals,” declared then-Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra following the January 4, 2004 “Pi-Leng Camp Weapons Raid” and simultaneous burning of 18 schools. This dismissive assessment would prove catastrophically misguided.
According to Dr. Srisompob Jitpiromsri, director of Deep South Watch, this failure to recognize the complex historical and cultural dimensions of the conflict had profound consequences. “The initial mischaracterization of the violence as mere criminality prevented the development of appropriate conflict resolution strategies,” Dr. Srisompob explained in his 2022 analysis of the conflict’s trajectory.
The Southern Situation Monitoring Centre’s January 2024 data paints a devastating picture: 2,296 violent incidents between January 2004 and December 2023, resulting in 7,547 deaths and 14,028 injuries. Behind these stark statistics lie shattered families and communities forever altered.
Thailand’s National Security Council estimates the economic impact exceeds 500 billion baht when accounting for security expenditures, lost development opportunities, and economic disruption.
The implementation of special security laws fundamentally changed daily life in the southern provinces. The Emergency Decree, enacted in July 2004, granted military officials extraordinary powers, including detention without warrant for up to seven days.
A 2023 report by the Cross Cultural Foundation documented over 100 cases of alleged torture and mistreatment during military detention, highlighting the human rights concerns that continue to plague security operations in the region.
Watershed moments: Krue Se and Tak Bai
Two incidents during Thaksin’s administration remain deeply embedded in the collective memory of the Deep South: the Krue Se Mosque confrontation and the Tak Bai tragedy.
The April 28, 2004 Krue Se incident resulted in 108 fatalities, with 30 people killed inside the historic mosque. Most victims were young men armed only with traditional weapons against military firepower.
Even more traumatic was the Tak Bai incident, where over 85 people died, primarily from suffocation while being transported in military vehicles. The October 2024 expiration of the statute of limitations for this case without any officials facing justice has only deepened community resentment, according to regional human rights advocates.
Peace initiatives have ebbed and flowed with changing governments. The first formal peace talks began under Yingluck Shinawatra’s administration, with Malaysia serving as facilitator between Thailand and the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN).
“The Ramadan Peace Initiative represented a significant breakthrough in confidence-building,” noted Professor Imtiyaz Yusuf of Mahidol University’s Institute of Human Rights and Peace Studies. “It demonstrated that temporary ceasefires could work when properly implemented.”
Even during the military government of General Prayut Chan-o-cha, dialogue continued with incremental progress, culminating in the JCPP Roadmap for Peace proposal.
The present impasse
Under current Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s administration, peace efforts appear stalled. No official negotiation team has been appointed, while violence has intensified. The Emergency Decree has been extended for the 79th consecutive time, reflecting a continued reliance on security measures over political solutions.
Regional security analyst Rungrawee Chalermsripinyorat observes that “the absence of a clear peace strategy creates a dangerous vacuum where militant factions can regain momentum and support.”
Thaksin Shinawatra’s recent visit to the Deep South—his first in 17 years—has sparked speculation about potential new approaches. Reports suggest he may advocate for adapting the “66/23” model originally used to reintegrate Communist insurgents during the 1980s.
However, Dr. Chaiwat Satha-Anand, prominent peace studies scholar, cautions against recycling outdated approaches: “The southern conflict is rooted in complex historical, cultural, and religious identities that require innovative solutions centered on meaningful autonomy discussions and genuine political inclusion.”
