24-6-2023 (BANGKOK) Thai universities are facing a challenging situation as the number of new births has significantly declined over the past few years, resulting in lower enrolments, according to education expert Arnond Sakworawich.
Arnond, who heads the Business Analytics and Intelligence Program at the Graduate School of Applied Statistics of the National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA), highlighted that most Thai universities are struggling to meet their enrolment targets.
The number of vacant seats in universities exceeds the number of students enrolling, forcing both public and private institutions to organize multiple admission sessions (3-5 rounds) in an attempt to fill the available seats. However, these efforts have been unsuccessful in achieving full capacity, Arnond explained.
The current higher education market in Thailand is relatively small, with around 200-300 universities enrolling fewer students than their annual capacity. Additionally, there has been a consistent decline in the number of births over the past five years. While Thailand recorded over a million births three decades ago, the current number has dropped by half to 500,000-600,000 births per year.
In 2005, Thailand began transitioning into an ageing society, and by 2022, it officially became a fully-fledged ageing society, with the elderly population reaching 12,116,119, accounting for 18.3% of the total population of approximately 70 million.
Projections indicate that by 2027, Thailand will become an advanced ageing society similar to Japan, with the elderly population accounting for 28% of the total population. Meanwhile, the birth rate remains very low, with only a 0.18% increase in population from new births.
As the number of Thai students entering universities continues to decline while the elderly population increases, it undoubtedly has a significant impact on the entire Thai education system, warned Arnond. Without adaptation, both public and private universities may struggle to survive in the next five years, potentially leading to mergers or closures.
To cope with the declining enrolments, Thai universities have actively recruited Chinese students. At some institutions, Chinese students now comprise up to half of the total student population. Approximately 3 million Chinese students have enrolled in Thai universities, significantly contributing to their revenue. Chinese students pay tuition fees ranging from 40,000 to 50,000 baht per semester in private and state universities such as Thammasat University, Chulalongkorn University, and NIDA, Arnond stated.
However, the decrease in student numbers has led to a sharp decline in revenue for universities, forcing some institutions to lay off teachers or adjust working conditions more flexibly.
On a positive note, this situation presents an opportunity for the private sector to collaborate with Thai universities for research in various fields to enhance business value. However, the success of such partnerships depends on the capabilities of teachers and their ability to drive research with student involvement. The declining state of universities poses a chain problem, and it remains to be seen how the new government will address the challenges faced by Thai universities, Arnond concluded.
