31-10-2023 (BANGKOK) Thailand is bracing for a significant decline in its population over the next six decades, with predictions suggesting that the country’s population could be halved. The Ministry of Public Health has recognized the severity of the issue and is taking measures to address it on a national level by prioritizing initiatives to promote pregnancy.
Dr. Cholnan Srikaew, the Public Health Minister, announced on Monday that every province in Thailand is at risk of experiencing the consequences of the changing age demographics.
The average fertility rate (TFR) for Thai women currently stands at 1.16, indicating that on average, a woman in Thailand gives birth to approximately 1.16 children in her lifetime. However, there is some variation across provinces, with Yala province having a higher TFR of 2.27.
The declining TFR trend has been evident since 1993 when it was recorded at 2.1. This decrease is in line with a decline in the overall number of births. From 1963 to 1983, Thailand experienced an average of about one million births per year. However, in 2021, the total number of newborn babies was only 485,085, which is lower than the death rate of 550,042, according to Dr. Cholnan.
He further explained that the primary causes of this decline are attributed to economic, social, educational, and environmental factors, with only 10% of the decrease being attributed to health-related issues.
Without effective measures in place, this year will mark the first time that the number of retirees aged 60-64 years old will outnumber workers aged 20-24 years old. This gap between the two age groups will continue to widen, leading to labor shortages, increased dependence on the working population, and higher healthcare costs for the elderly.
“We have been actively promoting the importance of pregnancy and including it in the national agenda to ensure that the government invests in human resource development. This includes providing financial assistance for newborn babies and support for infertility problems,” stated Dr. Cholnan.
Dr. Kua Wongboonsin from the College of Population Studies at Chulalongkorn University warned that if the current trends persist, Thailand’s population is projected to decline to 33 million by 2083, which is half of the current 66 million. The working-age population (15-64 years) is estimated to decrease from 46 million to 14 million, while the number of infants (0-14 years) will decline from 10 million to one million. Meanwhile, the elderly population (65 years and older) is expected to increase from eight million to 18 million, accounting for half of the total population in 2083.
