27-7-2023 (BANGKOK) Despite facing economic uncertainties due to various factors including China’s slower-than-expected economic recovery, vulnerable European economy, Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, and the El Niño weather phenomenon causing drought, the Commerce Ministry of Thailand remains optimistic about the export outlook. They believe that over the coming months, there will be a gradual recovery in exports.
Keerati Rushchano, the permanent commerce secretary, attributes the positive outlook to accelerated market openings in regions with strong potential, such as Central Asia, Latin America, and Africa. These opportunities help diversify risks and mitigate the impact of a slowdown in major export markets. Additionally, the continuous weakening of the Thai baht is providing exporters with a competitive edge in international trade.
Furthermore, the ministry believes that rising global concerns over food shortages may drive up the value of agricultural exports, offering another positive aspect to the export landscape.
Mr. Keerati expressed the ministry’s commitment to collaborate with the private sector to boost exports. They plan to organize promotional activities in various regions, starting with Kunming in August, followed by Nanjing and Shanghai in September.
Despite the positive outlook, the ministry reported that the value of exports had declined for the ninth consecutive month in June. Exports fell by 6.4% to US$24.8 billion, while imports decreased by 10.3% to $24.7 billion, leading to a trade surplus of $57.7 million.
In June, exports of agricultural and agro-industrial products contracted by 8.6% year-on-year to $4.53 billion, while industrial product exports dropped 4.6% to $19.3 billion.
For the first half of 2023, exports declined by 5.4% to $141.1 billion, and imports decreased by 3.5% to $147.4 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $6.3 billion.
Despite the challenging numbers, the Commerce Ministry maintains its annual export growth target of 1-2% for the full year.
Chaichan Chareonsuk, chairman of the Thai National Shippers’ Council, expressed optimism for a positive shift in exports from this month onwards. He believes that certain sectors such as automobiles, auto parts, electronics, and agricultural products like rice, sugar, and food will likely perform well in the remaining months of the year. The outlook for plastic pellets and chemicals, which remains negative, will depend on China’s recovery.
The council recently adjusted its export forecast to a range of -0.5% to 1% growth, taking into account the uncertainties surrounding major trading partners like the US, the European Union, and China, along with relatively high global interest rates. Nevertheless, the private sector remains hopeful for a turnaround in exports and aims to achieve an average monthly export value of $24 billion throughout the rest of the year to bring the overall annual exports back to positive territory.
