5-11-2023 (SINGAPORE) Political analysts in Singapore anticipate the next General Election (GE) will likely take place in November 2024 at the earliest. This projection comes after Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong announced his timeline for handing over leadership to Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong on Sunday, November 5.
While the transition plans were not entirely unexpected, the analysts suggest that the election timeline may have been accelerated due to the Prime Minister’s intent to pass the leadership to Wong before the next GE, potentially by November 21, 2024, which coincides with the 70th anniversary of the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP).
During his address to over 1,000 party members at the PAP awards and convention, Prime Minister Lee stressed that there was no reason to delay the transition further, and the forthcoming GE should remain on schedule, which must occur by November 2025.
Eugene Tan, a law don from Singapore Management University (SMU), noted the significance of 2024, marking both the PAP’s 70th anniversary and Mr. Lee’s 20th year as Prime Minister, as mentioned in the Prime Minister’s speech. This suggests that the ruling party may leverage these milestones, much like it did during SG50 at GE2015.
Regarding the precise timing of the polls, Associate Professor Tan speculates that if the election does not occur after Budget 2024, it could potentially be held towards the end of the year. He suspects that Mr. Lee might deliver his last National Day Rally speech in August.
Gillian Koh, a senior fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies, interprets Mr. Lee’s announcement as a confirmation that the next general election will not be held until November 2024. Dr. Felix Tan from Nanyang Technological University (NTU) described the announcement as “overdue,” as Mr. Lee has been discussing the transition to the next generation of leaders for several years. He added that the statement implied the likelihood of an election, at least in 2024.
Following the handover to Deputy Prime Minister Wong, it is expected that the new leadership may quickly call for an election to consolidate their position. Wong was endorsed as the leader of the 4G team last year after Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat, the initial Prime Minister-in-waiting, stepped aside in 2021, citing the need for a younger leader with a “longer runway.”
Mr. Lee had previously expressed his desire to step down before his 70th birthday in February 2022, but this plan was disrupted by the pandemic.
Nydia Ngiow, the managing director of public policy consultancy BowerGroupAsia, noted the widespread speculation about the timing of the leadership transition and suggested that handing over the premiership before the GE should be seen as a sign of confidence in the 4G leaders.
The analysts anticipate that Mr. Lee will remain active in PAP’s campaigning alongside Mr. Wong, helping to build confidence and assure continuity in leadership. They also expect some retirements and a significant Cabinet reshuffle, possibly before the end of 2023 or early 2024, reflecting the imprint of Mr. Wong and the 4G team.
In terms of leadership style, Deputy Prime Minister Wong emphasized finding common ground rather than accentuating differences during his address at the PAP convention. This approach aligns with the stance he has taken since being considered a frontrunner to lead the 4G team. It reflects a response to changing demands among Singaporeans regarding political leadership and policy-making.
The analysts suggest that under Wong’s leadership, Singapore may witness a more consultative style of government, aiming to include diverse voices and compromise to find middle ground. This shift is deemed essential to address the needs of segments of society that may feel the government has a one-track mind.
