20-11-2024 (KYIV) Recent analysis reveals a dramatic shift in the Ukrainian conflict’s momentum, with Russian forces securing nearly six times more territory in 2024 compared to the previous year, despite President Biden’s recent approval of enhanced military support for Ukraine.
According to data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian forces have captured approximately 2,700 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory this year, dwarfing their 2023 gains of 465 square kilometres. This surge in territorial acquisition comes as Ukraine’s bold incursion into Russia’s Kursk region faces significant setbacks.
The Russian advance has been particularly pronounced in strategic areas, including Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region and near Kurakhove, which serves as a gateway to the crucial logistics hub of Pokrovsk in Donetsk. Recent footage verified by independent sources confirms Russian forces advancing to within four kilometres of Kupiansk’s vital bridge crossing.
Dr Marina Miron, a defence researcher at Kings College London, warns of potential risks to Ukraine’s eastern front if Russian momentum continues. “The situation could deteriorate rapidly if the current pace of Russian advances persists,” she notes.
The territorial shifts come at a critical juncture, with President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration signalling a potential shift in US support for Ukraine. Trump has pledged to swiftly conclude the conflict, raising concerns about future military aid to Kyiv.
Despite territorial losses, Ukrainian forces have demonstrated resilience. President Volodymyr Zelensky, speaking to Fox News, emphasised the critical nature of continued Western support: “Our domestic production capacity alone is insufficient for survival.”
The conflict’s human cost remains staggering, with confirmed Russian casualties exceeding 78,000 since February 2022. Recent months have seen a marked increase in Russian losses, with casualty rates 50% higher than during the same period last year.
Ukraine’s recent deployment of US-approved long-range missiles into Russian territory marks a significant escalation, though military analysts suggest this may be too late to reverse the current battlefield dynamics. A
