5-1-2024 (SINGAPORE) As carbon emissions continue their upward trajectory, Singapore confronts an escalating threat from rising sea levels, potentially reshaping the nation’s coastlines. The latest projections from Singapore’s third National Climate Change Study, released on Friday, present a more alarming picture, revising the estimated mean sea level rise to 1.15m by the end of the century, up from the previous forecast of 1m.
The study, based on the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) sixth assessment report, extends its projections beyond the century’s end, anticipating a rise of up to 2m by 2150 under a high carbon emissions scenario. These figures, relative to the baseline period of 1995 to 2014, are driven by a better understanding of Antarctic ice sheet contributions to global sea levels.
The observed mean sea level rise around Singapore currently stands at 0.2m across six tide gauges. With 30% of the nation’s land lying below 5m above the mean sea level, the rising sea levels pose a significant threat. Extreme weather events, including high tides and storm surges, could elevate levels by an additional 4m to 5m.
In response to the imminent danger, authorities are exploring measures to protect Singapore’s shorelines. Initiatives include reclaiming land for a new island to safeguard endangered coastlines and the study of both short-term, hard structures such as sea walls, and longer-term, more targeted solutions. Singapore is also enhancing capabilities to address flood risks and bolster flood resilience. However, such initiatives come at a considerable cost, with Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong estimating over S$100 billion spread over a century.
The urgency to implement adaptation measures increases as sea-level rise accelerates, noted Professor Winston Chow from Singapore Management University. He emphasized the uncertainties regarding ice mass changes under high emissions scenarios and the potential impact on coastlines, stressing the need for swift action.
The third version of the national climate study marks a substantial advancement, providing projections up to 2150 and aligning with the latest scientific insights. Notable disparities from the second version, particularly at the tide gauge at Sultan Shoal, are attributed to advancements in the IPCC’s ice-sheet models.
