12-4-2024 (YANGON) A surge of individuals, many gripped by the fear of impending air strikes, formed long queues at a border crossing to escape Myanmar early on Friday. This mass exodus follows the capture of the strategically crucial town of Myawaddy, situated near Thailand, by the resurgent anti-junta resistance.
The seizure of Myawaddy not only deals a significant blow to the ruling military regime, already grappling with a plummeting economy but also deprives it of crucial revenues from border trade. Moreover, it bolsters rebel factions like the Karen National Union (KNU), which spearheaded the assault on Myawaddy, according to analysts.
Expressing her apprehension, Moe Moe Thet San, a resident of Myawaddy, recounted her distressing experience, particularly the terror instilled by the sound of air raids. Accompanied by her young son, she fled to Thailand, seeking refuge from the incessant bombardment that rattled their homes.
The loss of Myawaddy prompted Foreign Affairs Minister Parnpree Bahiddha-Nukara to schedule a visit to Mae Sot, situated just across the Moei River from Myawaddy, to assess the unfolding situation. Reports suggest that some Myanmar troops surrendered, citing concerns for their families, with negotiations underway with Thailand for their repatriation.
Myanmar has been engulfed in turmoil since 2021, following the military’s ousting of the civilian government, sparking widespread protests that were met with brutal repression. The simmering discontent has escalated into a nationwide armed resistance, increasingly coordinated with established ethnic rebel groups, challenging the military’s authority across extensive swathes of the Southeast Asian nation.
As tensions escalate, concerns mount over the possibility of a retaliatory offensive by the Myanmar military, possibly supported by air power, to reclaim Myawaddy. Dulyapak Preecharush, an associate professor of Southeast Asian Studies at Bangkok’s Thammasat University, warns of potential escalation in the conflict in the days ahead.
Amidst the escalating violence, the influx of refugees into Mae Sot from Myawaddy has doubled this week, reaching approximately 4,000 individuals daily. Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin emphasized the imperative of preventing the conflict from spilling over into Thailand’s airspace, reiterating his stance on engaging in dialogue with the Myanmar regime.
Thailand, asserting its neutrality in the Myanmar crisis, has extended support to its neighbour, including aid deliveries, under Prime Minister Srettha’s leadership since last August. However, the junta faces the prospect of further strain as the Arakan Army rebel group issues warnings of an impending offensive in Myanmar’s western Rakhine state.
Arakan Army chief Twan Mrat Naing urged residents of Sittwe and Kyauk Phyu to relocate ahead of what the group termed “a decisive battle,” underscoring the escalating tensions in the region. The Arakan Army, a formidable ethnic armed force, previously participated in Operation 1027, a coordinated assault with other rebel factions that wrested significant territory from the junta last October.
