10-7-2023 (JAKARTA) As Southeast Asia’s top diplomats gather in Indonesia this week, several pressing issues are expected to dominate their agenda. Prolonged civil strife in Myanmar, tensions in the disputed South China Sea, concerns over regional arms buildups, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the US-China rivalry will all be in the spotlight. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) foreign ministers will be joined by dialogue partners, including US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang.
The attendance of North Korea’s foreign minister, Choe Son Hui, at the ASEAN Regional Forum, an annual regional security meeting, remains uncertain. Additionally, it is yet to be determined which key figures from the world’s most intractable conflicts will meet on the sidelines of the ministerial meetings.
The foreign ministers of ASEAN member states, including Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, will hold meetings on Tuesday (Jul 11) and Wednesday, followed by discussions with their Asian and Western counterparts on Thursday and Friday.
Myanmar’s ongoing crisis has been a severe test of ASEAN’s principles since the military seized power from the elected government in February 2021. The country has witnessed deadly chaos, with over 3,750 civilians, including pro-democracy activists, killed by security forces, and nearly 24,000 arrests made. ASEAN’s five-point plan, which includes an immediate end to violence and dialogue among all parties, has largely been ignored by Myanmar’s military government.
As a response, ASEAN took an unprecedented step by barring Myanmar’s military leaders from its top-level gatherings, including the ministerial meetings hosted by Indonesia. However, there are differing opinions within ASEAN on how to address the crisis, with some countries advocating for more decisive action against the junta.
Indonesia, as the current ASEAN chair, has been actively engaging with various groups in Myanmar and providing humanitarian aid in an effort to build trust. Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi emphasized the importance of ending the violence, stating, “ASEAN is still very concerned about the increasing use of violence in Myanmar, which has resulted in civilian casualties and the destruction of public facilities.”
The South China Sea disputes will also be a significant topic of discussion. ASEAN foreign ministers are expected to renew their call for self-restraint and the avoidance of activities that could escalate conflicts and undermine peace and stability in the region. Countries such as Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam have longstanding territorial conflicts with China and Taiwan in the region. Negotiations between ASEAN and China on a non-aggression pact have faced delays.
The South China Sea has become a focal point in the US-China rivalry, with the US challenging China’s expansive territorial claims and conducting freedom of navigation patrols. Other Western and European nations have also deployed naval ships to ensure unimpeded commerce and mobility in the busy waterway.
The ASEAN foreign ministers expressed concern about the growing arms race and naval power projection in the region, highlighting the potential for miscalculation and increased tensions. They emphasized the importance of strengthening maritime governance to ensure a more stable and predictable maritime sphere.
