15-4-2024 (WASHINGTON) President Joe Biden has issued a stern warning to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, making it clear that the United States will not participate in any counter-offensive against Iran. This comes in the wake of a massive drone and missile attack on Israeli territory, an option that Mr. Netanyahu’s war cabinet is reportedly favouring, according to officials.
The looming threat of open warfare erupting between the long-standing Middle Eastern adversaries, potentially entangling the US, has put the region on high alert. Global powers and Arab nations have issued urgent calls for restraint to avoid further escalation.
In an appearance on ABC’s This Week programme on April 14, John Kirby, the White House’s top national security spokesman, affirmed that while the US will continue supporting Israel’s defence, it does not want war.
Jordan’s King Abdullah conveyed a similar sentiment to Mr. Biden during a phone call on April 14, cautioning that any further escalation from Israel would widen the conflict in the region, as reported by Jordanian state media.
Israeli officials have revealed that Mr. Netanyahu’s five-member war cabinet favoured retaliation during a meeting on April 14, although divisions persist regarding the timing and scale of any such response.
The attack, involving more than 300 missiles and drones predominantly launched from within Iran’s borders, was a reprisal for a suspected Israeli strike on Iran’s embassy compound in Syria on April 1. This strike claimed the lives of top Revolutionary Guards commanders and followed months of clashes between Israel and Iran’s regional allies, triggered by the ongoing war in Gaza.
Despite the barrage, the damage inflicted on Israel was relatively modest, as most of the projectiles were intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome defence system, aided by support from the US, Britain, France, and Jordan. An Air Force base in southern Israel sustained a hit but continued operating as usual, while a seven-year-old child suffered serious shrapnel injuries. No other reports of severe damage have emerged.
On April 14, two senior Israeli ministers signalled that immediate retaliation was unlikely and that Israel would not act alone. “We will build a regional coalition and exact the price from Iran in the fashion and timing that is right for us,” centrist minister Benny Gantz stated, ahead of a war cabinet meeting.
Defence Minister Yoav Gallant echoed similar sentiments, asserting that Israel had an opportunity to form a strategic alliance “against this grave threat by Iran, which is threatening to mount nuclear explosives on these missiles, which could be an extremely grave threat.” Iran has consistently denied seeking nuclear weapons.
Both Mr. Gantz and Mr. Gallant are members of Israel’s war cabinet, holding decision-making powers.
In the interim, Israel remains on high alert, with emergency measures expected to persist until late on April 15, including a ban on school activities and restrictions on large gatherings.
Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, in a televised statement, confirmed, “Over the last few hours, we approved operational plans for both offensive and defensive action.”
The cost of intercepting the drones and missiles is estimated to be around 4.5 billion shekels (£1 billion), with a portion of the expenditure funded by the US, according to Israel’s Channel 13 News.
Iranian army chief of staff, Major-General Mohammad Bagheri, issued a stern warning, stating, “Our response will be much larger than tonight’s military action if Israel retaliates against Iran.” He also cautioned Washington that its bases could be targeted if it assists Israel in retaliating.
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian revealed that Tehran had informed the US that its attack on Israel was limited and conducted in self-defence, adding that regional neighbours had been notified of the planned strikes 72 hours in advance. A Turkish diplomatic source corroborated that Turkey had indeed been informed in advance by Iran.
While Iran claimed the attack aimed to punish “Israeli crimes,” it now “deemed the matter concluded.”
Calls for restraint have come from Russia, China, France, Germany, Turkey, and Arab states such as Egypt, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. The UN Security Council is scheduled to convene at 4 pm ET on April 14 (4 am on April 15 in Singapore) to discuss the situation.
The leaders of the Group of 7 nations have condemned Iran’s attack and vowed to work towards stabilising the situation, warning Tehran that it risked “an uncontrollable regional escalation” through its actions.
Analysts remain divided on whether Iran’s attack was genuinely intended to cause widespread devastation in Israel or merely a face-saving exercise at home after vows of retaliation, while attempting to avoid igniting a major new war.
“I think the Iranians took into consideration the fact that Israel has a very, very strong multi-layer anti-missile system and they probably took into consideration that there will not be too many casualties,” remarked Sima Shine, a former senior Mossad official at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.
However, she cautioned, “If Iran was hoping for a muted response, like with its missile attacks on US forces in Iraq after the killing of Guards commander Qassem Soleimani in 2020, I don’t think Israel sees it this way.”
In Gaza, Iran’s attack drew applause from many Palestinians, who viewed it as rare retribution for the Israeli offensive on their enclave, which has claimed at least 33,000 lives.
“We have been slaughtered for over six months and no one dared to do anything. Now Iran, after its consulate was hit, is hitting back at Israel and this brings joy into our hearts,” expressed Majed Abu Hamza, 52, a father of seven from Gaza City.
On April 13, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards seized an Israel-linked cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy shipping routes, underscoring the risks a wider conflict poses to the global economy.
Flights have been suspended in various countries across the region, while share prices have fallen on stock markets in Israel and Gulf states.
The war in Gaza, which Israel invaded after an attack by the Iran-backed Hamas on October 7, has spread to fronts with Iran-aligned groups in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq.
For years, the Israeli prime minister has advocated a tough military stance against Iran, urging the US to take harsher action over Tehran’s nuclear programme and its support for groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and others in the region.
Although the first direct attack from another country in over three decades has caused alarm in Israel, the overall mood contrasts with the trauma experienced after the Hamas-led attack on October 7.
“I think we’ve been given license to respond now. I mean it was a major attack from Iran… I imagine Israel will respond and may be over quickly and get back to normal life,” said Jeremy Smith, 60, expressing a sentiment shared by many Israelis.
In Iran, state television broadcast small celebrations in several cities following the attack. However, some Iranians privately expressed concerns about potential Israeli retaliation.
“Iran gave Netanyahu a golden opportunity to attack our country. But we, the people of Iran, will bear the brunt of this conflict,” lamented Shima, a 29-year-old nurse from Tehran.
