15-9-2024 (MANILA) A growing political schism between two of the Philippines’ most influential families is threatening to spill over into the nation’s foreign policy, potentially complicating Manila’s delicate balancing act in the disputed South China Sea. The rift between President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr and former President Rodrigo Duterte has escalated from policy disagreements to open hostility, raising concerns about the stability of the country’s political landscape and its approach to regional geopolitics.
The conflict, which has its roots in divergent strategies towards China, has intensified in recent months. Marcos Jr’s pivot away from his predecessor’s conciliatory stance on Beijing has not only strained Philippines-China relations but also exposed deep fissures within the domestic political arena.
Efren Purones, a fisherman from Zambales, embodies the human impact of these tensions. “We spent hours here. But look, this is all we got,” he laments, pointing to a meagre catch in his boat. The bountiful waters around Scarborough Shoal, once a reliable source of income, now lie tantalizingly out of reach due to increased Chinese presence and the risk of confrontation.
The escalation of tensions in the South China Sea has been marked by several incidents, including a clash in June where Chinese coastguards, armed with knives and sticks, confronted Filipino troops within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ). This incident, which resulted in a Philippine Navy sailor losing a thumb, underscores the volatile situation in the contested waters.
Edcel Ibarra, an assistant professor of political science at the University of the Philippines Diliman, notes that “Marcos Jr pursued a harder foreign policy, which meant that Marcos Jr was more assertive in defending the Philippines’ rightful maritime claims.” This shift from Duterte’s non-confrontational approach has been met with approval from some quarters, including fishermen like Purones, who states, “Marcos is for the Filipinos, Duterte was for China.”
However, this policy shift has not come without consequences. Political analyst Ramon Beleno III observes that “China is reactive” and that “untoward incidents” initiated by Beijing often follow the Philippines’ engagement with other countries, particularly the United States.
The Marcos-Duterte alliance, once dubbed the “UniTeam” during the 2022 elections, has rapidly unravelled. Vice President Sara Duterte, daughter of the former president, resigned her post as education secretary in the Marcos Cabinet in June, just days after the South China Sea clash. This move was seen as a clear signal of the growing rift between the two camps.
The feud has taken on increasingly personal tones, with Rodrigo Duterte implying that Marcos is an American stooge and even calling him a “drug addict”. These attacks have raised concerns about the potential impact on the Philippines’ foreign policy and its ability to navigate the complex geopolitical landscape of Southeast Asia.
As the conflict intensifies, ordinary Filipinos are being drawn into the fray. Julie Baiza, a journalist covering the president, reports receiving hate messages from those who disagree with her reports. “Even a slight comment or critique of the politician they support would make them angry,” she says, highlighting the toxic nature of the current political discourse.
The situation is further complicated by the Philippines’ high social media usage and vulnerability to online disinformation. Taiwan-based research organisation Doublethink Lab has identified posts about an imminent Philippine civil war circulating on Chinese social media, raising concerns about foreign influence on public opinion.
Despite these challenges, there are signs of a “new, emerging patriotism” among Filipinos, according to Ronald Llamas, a former political adviser. “In all surveys, more than 90 per cent say they’re angry at China for encroaching on our territory,” he notes.
