5-7-2023 (MANILA)The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) released its first El Niño advisory on Tuesday, raising concerns about the potential effects of this weather phenomenon on the country’s water supply and agriculture.
El Niño refers to the significant warming of surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Typically, El Niño events are associated with increased global heat and can lead to droughts in certain regions, including the Philippines, as well as heavy rainfall in other parts of the world.
At present, El Niño is categorized as “weak,” according to Ana Liza Solis, the chief of PAGASA’s climate monitoring and prediction section. However, it is anticipated to strengthen and reach a moderate or strong level during the last quarter of this year.
Solis clarified that there won’t be a significant reduction in rainfall volume from July to September, which coincides with the peak of the southwest monsoon (habagat) season. However, by the end of December, as many as 36 provinces may experience dry spells characterized by below-normal rainfall conditions for three consecutive months or significantly below-normal levels for two consecutive months.
These provinces include Abra, Benguet, Ifugao, Kalinga, Apayao, Mountain Province, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Bataan, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Tarlac, Zambales, Metro Manila, Batangas, Laguna, Rizal, Quezon, Marinduque, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Palawan, Spratlys Islands, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes in Luzon. Additionally, Antique, Guimaras, Iloilo, and Leyte in the Visayas may also experience dry spells.
By the end of October, dry spells may potentially affect the provinces of Agusan del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, and Surigao del Sur. Furthermore, Camarines Norte and Southern Leyte may face drought conditions by the end of December. Droughts occur when there are below-normal rainfall conditions for five consecutive months.
In January 2024, the provinces of Cagayan, Cavite, Antique, Guimaras, Iloilo, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Siquijor, Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga del Sur, Zamboanga Sibugay, Misamis Occidental, Sultan Kudarat, Basilan, Maguindanao, Sulu, and Tawi-Tawi may experience dry spells.
Meanwhile, most parts of Luzon, including Abra, Benguet, Ifugao, Kalinga, Apayao, Mountain Province, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Bataan, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Tarlac, Zambales, Metro Manila, Batangas, Laguna, Rizal, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Palawan, and the Spratly Islands, may face drought conditions.
Preparing for El Niño’s Impact
“The impacts will be felt little by little because this is a slow onset event that we need to be prepared for in the next six to seven months,” Solis stated. She emphasized the importance of readiness for reduced rainfall during El Niño, which could have consequences for the country’s water supply and areas relying on hydroelectric power.
PAGASA’s deputy director, Esperanza Cayanan, underlined the significance of proactive measures to mitigate the impact of El Niño, urging preparations to limit its effects on people’s health, ecosystems, and economies. The World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General, Petteri Taalas, warned that El Niño would significantly increase the likelihood of breaking temperature records and triggering more extreme heat in various parts of the world.
In April, President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. ordered the establishment of a team dedicated to mitigating the potential adverse impacts of El Niño. As the situation unfolds, the government and relevant authorities will closely monitor developments and take necessary actions to safeguard the well-being of the population and minimize the disruption caused by El Niño.
