22-6-2023 (MANILA) The Philippines could become one of the world’s 20 largest economies in less than 30 years, according to a report by BMI Research, a subsidiary of Fitch Group. The report predicts a major reshuffle of the global economy starting in the 2030s, with some emerging economies, including the Philippines, giving developed economies a run for their money. China is expected to overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy in 2027 and outgrow it by a large margin by 2050. India is expected to leapfrog to third place in 2035 from its current position of fifth-largest economy.
BMI is particularly optimistic about Bangladesh, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines, all of which have growing populations and are rapidly developing high value-added sectors such as manufacturing. The report estimates the Philippines will be the world’s 18th-largest economy in 2050, tied with Russia, each accounting for 2.3% of global wealth.
Currently, the Philippines is ranked 38th with the domestic economy valued at $394 billion while Russia is at 11th place with $1.8 trillion. Russia, Brazil and Mexico are expected to experience relative economic decline over the forecast period. Over the 27-year forecast period, the Russian economy is expected to slide from 11th this year with a 2% contribution to the global economy to 15th (2.2%) in 2035 until the Philippines catches up to the global superpower by mid-century.
BMI acknowledges that given the significant timescales involved, risks to these forecasts are significant, and it is unlikely that all of the 206 economies covered by the report will exist in 2050 in their present forms. The forecasts are based on the United Nations’ population projections and an extrapolation of the themes that BMI expects will drive economic growth in the 2020s and 2030s.
