25-6-2023 (BANGKOK) The Election Commission’s (EC) endorsement of all 500 MPs-elect has paved the way for parliament to convene and select a new prime minister. The Move Forward Party (MFP), which secured the largest number of house seats in the May 14 general election, formed an alliance with seven parties supporting its leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, for the prime ministerial vote.
Although the MFP-led bloc holds a majority government with a total of 312 seats within the alliance, securing Mr. Pita’s premiership poses a significant challenge. The Pheu Thai Party, the first runner-up and an ally of the MFP, is widely perceived to be in a more advantageous position to claim the prime ministership.
Potential Obstacles
According to legal scholar and former constitution drafting committee adviser Jade Donavanik, there are several hurdles facing the MFP. The party must first secure the House speaker position, an issue that remains unresolved with the Pheu Thai Party also vying for the role. Failure to settle this dispute amicably could complicate Mr. Pita’s chances in the prime minister vote.
Moreover, Mr. Pita himself faces allegations of breaching media shareholding regulations. This qualification issue could jeopardize his candidacy if brought before the Constitutional Court for a ruling. Mr. Jade emphasized the need to address concerns such as what would happen if Mr. Pita is elected but later stripped of his MP status, or if another candidate is chosen and Mr. Pita is subsequently cleared by the court.
Additionally, the MFP-led bloc faces the challenge of garnering the 376 votes required from both chambers to support Mr. Pita’s bid for the premiership. To achieve this, the alliance needs backing from at least 63 individuals outside the coalition, a task that Mr. Jade believes to be difficult.
Potential Scenarios
Mr. Phichai Ratnatilaka Na Bhuket, the program director for politics and development strategy at the National Institute of Development Administration (Nida), expressed confidence in Mr. Pita’s prospects of becoming the country’s next prime minister. He suggested that the Pheu Thai Party, despite being divided over the House speaker position, would ultimately respect the voters’ overwhelming support for change and concede the post to the MFP while retaining two deputy positions.
Mr. Phichai noted that if the MFP secures the House speaker post, its chances of obtaining the prime minister position are strengthened. However, the 250-member senate, divided into conservative, non-committal, and progressive blocs, poses a potential obstacle. If Mr. Pita fails to be elected in the first round, the MFP-bloc may attempt to lobby MPs from other parties, while public pressure could sway the senate’s decision in favor of the bloc.
Nonetheless, Mr. Phichai acknowledged the possibility that the Pheu Thai Party may nominate one of its three candidates if Mr. Pita’s bid proves unsuccessful after multiple rounds of voting.
Addressing Legal Concerns
Despite legal troubles and uncertainties, Mr. Pita is expected to overcome these challenges, according to Mr. Phichai. He cited previous court rulings involving shareholding issues and expressed confidence that Mr. Pita would not face a fate similar to Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, the former leader of the now-dissolved Future Forward Party. The Constitutional Court had disqualified Thanathorn as an MP due to his shares in a media firm. However, subsequent cases have clarified that the ownership of shares in media companies that do not generate income from media operations is not disqualifying.
A Different Perspective
Contrary to Mr. Phichai’s optimism, an unnamed source within the MFP expressed concerns that the party may lose the prime minister post. Discussions have taken place between the MFP and the Pheu Thai Party regarding potential scenarios. If the ongoing EC investigation into Mr. Pita’s qualifications under Section 151 of the Criminal Code proves insufficient, MPs may petition the court to create difficulties for Mr. Pita.
The source stated that due to distrust stemming from ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s potential return, Pheu Thai might ultimately claim the top post while offering Mr. Pita a deputy prime minister position. The MFP-led bloc could receive no more than 30 votes from the Senate. The source added that the MFP’s failure to decisively win the election has contributed to the difficulties faced in forming the coalition, potentially leading to the MFP conceding the House speaker post to Pheu Thai.
The battle for the House speakership remains an intriguing development, as Pheu Thai’s stance on the matter remains ambiguous while the MFP insists on occupying the post.
