24-3-2025 (YANGON) The Myanmar junta’s authority continues to wane markedly in 2025, with its territorial control dwindling to a mere fifth of the nation, according to BBC analysis. This stark reality stands in sharp contrast to Senior General Min Aung Hlaing’s recent proclamation of forthcoming elections, scheduled for the year’s end or early 2026.
ASEAN’s diplomatic patience appears to be wearing desperately thin. At their January retreat, foreign ministers delivered an unequivocal message to the State Administration Council (SAC): peace must take precedence over electoral ambitions.
Malaysia’s ascension to the ASEAN chair presents a pivotal moment for regional diplomacy. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has assembled an advisory council comprising seasoned ASEAN veterans, whilst Special Envoy Othman Hashim has embarked on a comprehensive diplomatic mission, engaging with various stakeholders including the National Unity Government (NUG) and ethnic armed groups.
The humanitarian situation has reached alarming proportions, with an estimated 20 million Myanmarese requiring urgent assistance. Thailand’s pioneering cross-border aid corridor represents a notable departure from traditional ASEAN mechanisms, though the initiative faces considerable challenges.
The military’s grip has loosened significantly since the 2021 coup, particularly following the unprecedented loss of two regional commands in late 2024. Despite controlling predominantly Bamar regions initially, the junta’s influence has eroded even in these traditional strongholds.
The Five-Point Consensus (5PC), ASEAN’s primary framework for addressing the crisis, has attracted mounting criticism due to the military regime’s persistent non-compliance. Nevertheless, the bloc maintains its commitment to this approach whilst acknowledging the need for strategic evolution.
The exodus of Myanmar’s citizens, fleeing conflict and conscription whilst seeking educational and economic opportunities abroad, has intensified regional pressures. This demographic shift, coupled with recent USAID funding reductions, presents fresh challenges for neighbouring nations.
Looking ahead, ASEAN faces the complex task of preparing for Myanmar’s post-conflict landscape. This encompasses supporting local governance initiatives in liberated territories and developing comprehensive strategies for judicial reform and federal system implementation.
The involvement of external powers, particularly China, India, and Japan, could prove crucial in coordinating an effective regional response. However, ASEAN’s ability to galvanise coordinated international action remains uncertain.
This crisis demands a delicate balance between immediate conflict resolution and long-term reconstruction planning. Malaysia’s chairmanship may well define ASEAN’s capacity to navigate this complex diplomatic terrain and shape Myanmar’s future trajectory.
