30-5-2024 (YANGON) Myanmar’s ruling military junta has lost control over vast swaths of the country’s territory, including access to much of its international borders, according to two reports assessing the ongoing conflict. This loss of control has allowed ethnic armed groups to expand and consolidate regions under their authority, posing a significant challenge to the junta’s grip on power.
The Southeast Asian nation, with a population of 55 million, has been gripped by turmoil since February 2021 when the military ousted the elected government led by Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, sparking widespread protests. These street demonstrations, met with a brutal crackdown, evolved into an armed resistance movement that has combined forces with many of Myanmar’s ethnic rebel armies, presenting the most formidable challenge to the military in decades.
According to the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar (SAC-M), an independent group of international experts established after the coup to support the return of democracy, the junta does not have effective control of Myanmar. The council’s briefing paper states that the military has lost complete authority over townships covering 86% of the country’s territory, which are home to 67% of the population.
“The military junta does not control enough of the territory of Myanmar to uphold the core duties of the state,” the SAC-M said in its briefing paper. “The junta has abandoned significant territory and has been forced into a defensive posture in most parts of the country where it remains present.”
A coordinated offensive in October 2022, dubbed Operation 1027, led by three ethnic armies, marked a pivotal moment that exposed the military’s weakened position, forcing it to cede vast borderlands in Myanmar’s north. Subsequent offensives by ethnic armies have pushed the junta out of peripheral areas all the way from the country’s border with Thailand to coastal tracts along the Bay of Bengal.
“The ethnic armed groups that have achieved many of these military victories are consolidating control of their expanded homeland areas, with many well on the way to establishing autonomous statelets,” said the non-profit Crisis Group in a separate report.
The military’s mounting losses and growing discontent among the elite in the capital, Naypyidaw, have cast serious doubt on the future of junta chief Min Aung Hlaing, although he has packed senior ranks with officers loyal to him, according to the Crisis Group. “He might thus be able to keep his job, but given the level of discontent, he could nevertheless face a plot to remove him,” the report stated.
With the junta losing control of almost all of the country’s borders and non-state administrations likely to expand, both reports urged neighbouring states, regional blocs, and the international community to widen their engagement with resistance groups.
Internal displacement in Myanmar has reached record highs, with over three million people forced out of their homes due to the escalating conflict, according to United Nations (UN) agencies.
“The international community must understand this reality and work directly with resistance authorities and civil society to deliver urgent aid and assistance to the Myanmar people,” said Yanghee Lee, one of SAC-M’s founding members.
