23-5-2023 (Bangkok) The surprising triumph of Thailand’s Move Forward Party in the lower house election on May 14 could mark the dawn of a new era in Thai politics, one that is less dominated by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
Just a week after the vote, Move Forward managed to form a coalition with eight opposition parties, including Thaksin’s own Pheu Thai Party. Together, they hold 313 seats in the 500-member House of Representatives.
However, this coalition alone falls short of the 376 votes required to install Move Forward’s leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, as the prime minister. The position is determined through a joint vote of the House and the 250-member Senate, necessitating the acquisition of support from the ruling coalition and military appointees.
Amidst the battle to secure the necessary 376 votes, a rift has emerged within the coalition, with a familiar face at its core.
In a YouTube video posted two days after the election, Thaksin expressed a mix of praise and bitterness towards Move Forward. He suggested that the party may have utilized an information network to spread rumors about Pheu Thai forming a different coalition, resulting in a loss of trust in his own party. Thaksin also referred to Move Forward as a “disrupter” for its adept use of social media and user-generated content.
Move Forward’s deputy leader, Phicharn Chaowapatanawong, denied the accusation of spreading rumors, stating that the party neither possesses the budget nor the intention for such operations.
Move Forward secured the support of young voters through its progressive policies, including reforms to Thailand’s lese-majeste laws and the abolition of military conscription. The surprising aspect was the decline of Pheu Thai, which, for the first time in five consecutive general elections since Thaksin established its precursor party, Thai Rak Thai, in 1998, relinquished its first-place position.
Thaksin’s enduring influence in Thai politics, despite his fall from grace following the 2006 military coup and his subsequent exile to evade corruption charges, can be attributed to his unparalleled ability to gauge the political landscape and public sentiment.
His electoral prowess became evident in 2001, during the first election where Thai voters could cast votes for parties alongside individual candidates. Thai Rak Thai presented a straightforward manifesto and won over the public with its policies aimed at revitalizing rural areas and combating poverty. The party’s success was attributed to its ability to mobilize rural poor voters, who had long been neglected in favor of urban upper- and middle-class voters.
Thai Rak Thai’s implementation of policies such as affordable medical visits priced at 30 baht (equivalent to 87 cents at current rates) and the One Tambon One Product entrepreneurship initiative garnered praise. In the subsequent general election in 2005, Thai Rak Thai secured three-quarters of the lower house seats, becoming Thailand’s first and only single-party ruling period.
In 2007, following the coup, Thailand’s Constitutional Court dissolved Thai Rak Thai on charges of electoral fraud. Party members regrouped under the People Power Party. Despite 111 senior Thai Rak Thai officials being banned from politics, Thaksin nominated former Deputy Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej, a pro-monarchist from an old aristocratic family, as the prime ministerial candidate. Samak, ridiculed as a relic of the past, led the People Power Party to a solid victory, marking a rare return to power after an ouster in Thai politics.
As protests against Thaksin resurfaced in 2008, he fled the country, and the People Power Party was dissolved on minor allegations of electoral misconduct, resulting in another loss of government control. Lawmakers reorganized under the banner of Pheu Thai, yet an additional 109 party officials were banned from politics.
With 220 officials from its precursor parties barred from participation, Pheu Thai was expected to be a minor contender in the 2011 election. However, Thaksin nominated his sister Yingluck as the party’s prime ministerial candidate, aiming to replicate the overwhelming victory achieved by Yingluck, potentially becoming Thailand’s first female prime minister. Pheu Thai defied expectations and won by a landslide.
This period marked the peak of Thaksin’s electoral prowess, as subsequent strategies often proved futile.
In November 2013, when Pheu Thai forced a vote on an amnesty bill to facilitate Thaksin’s return and return to power, mass protests erupted. Unable to defuse the unrest, the military staged another coup to remove Yingluck’s government.
For the 2019 election, the military government implemented rules to prevent a single party from achieving significant success, prolonging its control and hindering Thaksin’s camp. Thaksin attempted to circumvent these restrictions by dividing Pheu Thai across multiple parties, but he faced an uphill battle.
In a surprising move aimed at reversing the situation, Thaksin orchestrated the nomination of Princess Ubolratana Rajakanya, sister of King Maha Vajiralongkorn, as the candidate for prime minister through the proxy party Thai Raksa Chart. However, the king deemed it “inappropriate” for the royal family to engage in politics, and the Constitutional Court dissolved the party before the election. Pheu Thai barely managed to secure a victory.
Four years later, Thaksin’s daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, was selected as one of Pheu Thai’s prime ministerial candidates, hoping to replicate Yingluck’s success from a decade earlier.
Throughout the campaign, Pheu Thai maintained a clear lead in polls. However, the final pre-election poll by the National Institute of Development Administration, released on May 3, showed a decline in Pheu Thai’s support from 47% to 38% in just two weeks, while Move Forward surged from 21% to 33%.
Concerns about this unexpected slowdown may have prompted Thaksin’s next move. On May 9, five days prior to the election, he tweeted that he would return to Thailand by his birthday, July 26, to spend time with his grandchildren. Although Thaksin had alluded to this possibility on numerous occasions, it was the first time he provided a specific date.
However, instead of boosting the morale of his party and supporters, Thaksin’s decision not to wait until the new government took office in August appeared to reinforce rumors of a secret deal between Pheu Thai and the pro-military ruling party to form a coalition government.
The recent election witnessed a record 75.2% voter turnout. Liberal voters opposed to compromises with the pro-military faction likely supported Move Forward, while those disapproving of Thaksin leaned towards the pro-military coalition.
Thaksin’s ill-considered tweet, rather than Move Forward’s maneuvering, seemingly lent credibility to the theory of a grand coalition in the final stages of the election.
Reflecting on the situation, one recalls the amnesty bill vote in 2013 that faced widespread public opposition. During that time, Thaksin visited Tokyo and had lunch with then-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at the Okura Tokyo hotel.
According to a source familiar with the conversation, Abe questioned Thaksin about the complications arising from protests against the amnesty bill. Dismissing the demonstrations, Thaksin claimed they only attracted a maximum of 20,000 participants.
In reality, over 200,000 protesters flooded the streets, leading to the longest sustained anti-government demonstration in Thailand’s history, lasting 204 days. It took a coup the following year to quell the protests.
In summary, Thaksin misjudged the opposition to the amnesty bill, was linked to the ill-fated candidacy of the princess four years ago, and most recently, issued an untimely tweet.
Could Thaksin’s political instincts have grown rusty during his prolonged absence? Or is this a case of a politician adopting the habits of an imperious company president, disconnected from the factory floor and exposed only to positive news?
The recent election witnessed a clash between supporters and opponents of the military, as well as proponents and critics of Thaksin. Pheu Thai became a target in both battles. The election results indicate that Pheu Thai has been marginalized as an outdated political relic, similar to the pro-military and anti-Thaksin factions.
Thaksin, once the embodiment of Thailand’s popular will, has seen his image as an invincible charismatic politician fade away. Whether the end of this era heralds a new beginning for Thai politics remains to be seen.
