5-7-2024 (LONDON) An exit poll has indicated that Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party is set to win a resounding majority in the parliamentary election held on July 5, marking an end to 14 years of increasingly turbulent Conservative-led government. According to the forecast, Labour is on course to capture an astonishing 410 of the 650 seats in Parliament, a remarkable reversal of fortunes from just five years ago when the party suffered its worst performance since 1935.
The exit poll predicts that the Labour Party’s projected majority of 170 seats would hand them an unassailable victory, while Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives are poised to suffer historic losses, with the party forecast to secure only 131 seats – their worst electoral performance in history. The centrist Liberal Democrats are expected to win 61 seats, while the right-wing populist Reform UK party, led by Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage, is predicted to claim an unexpected 13 seats, far exceeding expectations.
“If what we have seen so far holds out, then it is clear that the British people have voted for change,” said Rachel Reeves, the Labour Party’s prospective first female finance minister. “In the coming hours, after 14 years, people will wake up to the prospect of a new government: the first Labour victory in nearly two decades, a page turned, a new chapter started, a chance to look ahead to a brighter future that seemed so remote for so long.”
The Conservatives’ dismal performance can be attributed to the cost-of-living crisis and years of instability and infighting, which have seen five different prime ministers since the Brexit vote of 2016. Voters have seemingly punished the party for its inability to address these pressing issues, resulting in a seismic shift in support towards the Labour Party.
Early results have confirmed Labour and the Liberal Democrats making significant gains at the expense of the Conservatives, with Reform UK also claiming its first victory and pushing the Conservatives into third place in many areas.
“Reform has clearly done well tonight, and I know the reaction of some of my colleagues will be that we should lurch to the right,” one anonymous Conservative lawmaker told Reuters. “But Labour have won this election in the centre, and we need to remember that lesson.”
While the exit poll suggests a resounding victory for the centre-left in Britain, this trend contrasts with the recent electoral gains made by the far-right National Rally party in France, led by Marine Le Pen, on June 30.
The Scottish National Party (SNP), which campaigns for Scottish independence, was also predicted to suffer significant losses, with the exit poll forecasting only 10 seats – its worst showing since 2010 – after a period of turmoil that has seen two leaders resign in just over a year.
“If this exit poll is correct, then this is a historic defeat for the Conservative Party,” remarked Keiran Pedley, research director at Ipsos, the firm responsible for conducting the exit poll. “It looked like the Conservatives were going to be in power for 10 years, and it has all fallen apart.”
Rishi Sunak’s decision to call an election earlier than necessary in May, with the Conservatives trailing Labour by some 20 points in opinion polls, has been widely criticized within his party. Despite hoping that the gap would narrow, as has traditionally been the case in British elections, the deficit remained stubbornly high throughout a campaign marred by controversies and missteps.
“We deserved to lose. The Conservative Party just appears exhausted and out of ideas,” lamented Ed Costello, the chairman of the Grassroots Conservatives organisation, which represents rank-and-file members. “But it is not all Rishi Sunak’s fault. It is Boris Johnson and Liz Truss that have led the party to disaster. Rishi Sunak is just the fall guy.”
While the predicted Labour result falls short of the record levels achieved by the party under Tony Blair in 1997 and 2001, when Labour captured 418 and 412 seats respectively, it nonetheless represents a remarkable comeback for a party that appeared to be facing an existential crisis just three years ago.
“The electoral mountain that Labour have needed to climb is bigger than Tony Blair had to climb, and he (Starmer) has climbed it with room to spare,” commented Professor Peter Sloman, a politics expert at the University of Cambridge.
