14-8-2023 (JAKARTA) The trajectory of Indonesia’s trade balance is expected to manifest a decline in both exports and imports for the month of July. This economic outlook is attributed to the prevailing global trade downturn, which has exerted pressure on the country’s trade surplus, according to a recent Reuters poll.
Economists’ forecasts, collectively composed of 17 experts, anticipate Indonesia’s trade balance for July to exhibit a surplus amounting to $2.53 billion. This figure represents a reduction from the previous month’s $3.46 billion surplus.
Indonesia, a major economic player within Southeast Asia, achieved a historic milestone last year by securing its largest trade surplus to date. This accomplishment was fueled by an upswing in exports, predominantly driven by a surge in global commodity demand.
Nonetheless, the buoyant surplus has encountered constriction in the current year, aligned with the decrease in exports triggered by the diminished prices of key commodities like coal, palm oil, and nickel.
Recent economic data indicates that exports for the preceding month were projected to decline by 18.3% in comparison to the previous year. This decline follows a similar trend observed in June, where exports saw an annual reduction of 21.18%. These insights emerged from a comprehensive survey conducted between August 7 and 14, capturing the opinions of experts.
On the front of imports, economists anticipate a year-on-year decrease of 15.50% for July. This projection constitutes a moderation from the preceding month’s 18.35% dip, as outlined in the median forecast.
