14-7-2023 (KUALA LUMPUR) Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is taking a gamble by making the upcoming elections in six Malaysian states more personal. Rather than simply focusing on Muslim Malay support for his unity government, Anwar is framing the polls as a referendum on his seven-month premiership anchored on multiracialism and civil society, known as Malaysia Madani.
Anwar, Malaysia’s 10th prime minister, is urging Malaysians, especially ethnic Malays making up over 60% of the population, to move beyond race-based and religious politics. He wants voters to back his fledgling administration’s new multiracial political vision championed by his Pakatan Harapan coalition.
It’s a tall order, especially when Malay opposition parties claim Malays risk losing political clout and economic marginalization. They argue multiculturalism threatens Islam as Malaysia’s official religion.
Anwar’s most vocal opponent is 98-year old former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad who dominated Malaysian politics for decades. Mahathir is courting two main Malay opposition parties to support his “Malay Proclamation” outlining strategies to protect Malay interests and unite Malays to regain power.
While avoiding alienating non-Malay voters, the Malay-based parties have vowed to work together in the state polls.
The upcoming polls will not change Anwar’s overwhelming parliamentary majority but will gauge support from Malays, who only backed Anwar after UMNO threw their support behind him.
A strong performance by Anwar’s allies will provide a mandate for his reform agenda and show a multiracial Malaysia is taking hold. A poor result would suggest politics remain stuck in race and religion.
Frustrated with leadership issues and corruption, many Malay voters backed Perikatan Nasional in the last election as a protest against UMNO. How parties campaign will set the tone.
UMNO’s political decline due to leadership struggles and corruption left Malaysia’s racial balance disturbed since 2018. UMNO now controls just 26 parliamentary seats while its Malay rivals occupy 74.
“Winning back Malaysia’s investment premium by restoring political stability is key,” says Centennial Asia CEO Manu Bhaskaran.
Anwar’s gamble carries risks, including his ties to UMNO. Analysts acknowledge UMNO is a burden. Factional disputes, corruption charges against leaders, and a poor public image leave UMNO facing an existential crisis. Younger Malays struggle to connect with a party campaigning for Najib Razak’s release.
“Ten of the eleven people I speak to tell me UMNO will be decimated,” says former UMNO treasurer Abdul Azim Zabidi.
PAS and Bersatu, which gained from anti-UMNO sentiment, also face challenges wooing the fickle Malay ground. “PN has somewhat lost its appeal because all it can do is harp on PH’s failure,” says Merdeka Center’s Ibrahim Suffian.
Analysts expect the status quo in Kelantan and Penang. But other states could produce surprises depending on how the dominant Malay community votes.
Amanah vice president Mahfuz Omar hopes PH component parties can win Kedah, which they narrowly lost in 2018. “The anti-UMNO wave is no longer there and we only need a 10% voter swing,” he said.
Winning Kedah and strong victories in PH states would give Anwar the mandate he seeks. Anything less will keep Malaysia trapped in political limbo.
