17-2-2024 (JAKARTA) As Indonesia prepares to welcome its new president, Prabowo Subianto, observers are speculating that the largest member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) could reclaim a leading role in the regional bloc after the Joko Widodo years. During Widodo’s tenure, foreign policy took a backseat to domestic priorities, leaving some to wonder if Indonesia’s influence in ASEAN waned.
Widodo, affectionately known as “Jokowi,” was the first Indonesian president to come from outside the military or political elite. His charismatic leadership earned him global recognition, but foreign affairs were largely left to his administration members. It was only recently, during Indonesia’s chairmanship of the G20 in 2022 and ASEAN in 2023, that Widodo stepped up his involvement in diplomatic matters.
Analysts expect Prabowo, a former general with deep ties to neighbouring countries and superpowers alike, to take a more active personal role in diplomacy. His campaign focused on an “Indonesia First” pledge, vowing to ensure that the interests of the country’s 280 million citizens would not be undermined by foreign powers.
“As defence minister, Prabowo was known for advocating a more balanced foreign policy and seeking partnerships with multiple nations, including Asian powers. As a presidential candidate, he cited the need for a strong maritime defence capacity to maintain Indonesia’s interests,” said Leigh Howard, chief executive of Asialink Business in Melbourne.
Southeast Asian policymakers may also be comforted by Prabowo’s commitment to continuity, signified by his choice of Widodo’s son as his running mate in the election. A stable and prosperous Indonesia is seen as a boon for all in diplomatic circles.
Some observers also see potential for Indonesia to drive strongly towards ASEAN centrality, focusing more closely on the bloc’s longstanding issues, such as territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea and the humanitarian crisis in Myanmar under the junta’s rule.
“The fact that the Jokowi administration has largely shied away from Indonesia’s traditional role as a leader in ASEAN has exacerbated the organisation’s strategic drift. Prabowo thus has the opportunity to steer Indonesia towards a more forward-leaning and active role in ASEAN, and restore the institution’s relevance and centrality. But all this depends on whether he has the patience to work through ASEAN’s admittedly languid decision-making and institutional processes,” said Andreyka Natalegawa, an associate fellow at the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Natalegawa added that “Prabowo may place a higher priority on maritime security and the assertion of Indonesia’s rights in the South China Sea, including by supporting some efforts at coordination among Southeast Asian claimants.”
This would build on the groundwork laid by President Widodo during a visit to Manila in January, where he and his Filipino counterpart, Ferdinand Marcos Jr, agreed to strengthen defence ties and existing border cooperation pacts after “fruitful” discussions on the South China Sea and cooperation within ASEAN.
Howard also pointed out that Prabowo’s leadership role in ASEAN and globally will depend on his ability to build consensus with his peers in the region, his priorities on international issues, and the foreign policy team he installs in his government.
Thus, a key area to watch will be the composition of the Prabowo Cabinet and which existing foreign affairs officials will be retained.
A top diplomat noted that Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi had been “very active” in Widodo’s stead, adding, “Indonesia was sometimes a bit too pushy” – in stark contrast to the perception that foreign policy was not a top priority for the President.
Marsudi oversaw over 60 engagements related to the Myanmar crisis in the first half of 2023 alone, as part of Indonesia’s “non-megaphone diplomacy” during its ASEAN chairmanship.
While her energy is noted in the diplomatic corps, her “values-oriented approach that sidelined the junta… hasn’t been effective in convincing Myanmar’s military to be more open to foreign observers nor to a more benign political regime,” said Donna Priadi, Indonesia country director at Vriens & Partners.
A stronger indicator of Jakarta’s leanings may be whether Coordinating Minister of Maritime and Investment Affairs Luhut Panjaitan will continue in his “problem-solver” role. He has served as Widodo’s point man on key issues such as procuring COVID-19 vaccines and pandemic recovery, securing investment for the proposed new capital Nusantara in the jungles of Kalimantan, and managing relations with both Washington and Beijing amid rising Chinese investment.
Much will also depend on how Prabowo balances Indonesia’s interests against those of ASEAN as a whole.
“Reclaiming Indonesia’s lead role in ASEAN would be a useful vehicle for enhancing Prabowo’s foreign policy profile. However, he may also determine that Indonesia possesses sufficient weight to achieve this objective independently,” noted Howard of CSIS.
As the largest economy and most populous nation in the region, Indonesia’s future foreign policy direction under Prabowo Subianto will undoubtedly shape ASEAN’s trajectory and influence in the years to come.
