14-6-2023 (JAKARTA) Economists surveyed in a Reuters poll anticipate a reduction in Indonesia’s trade surplus for May compared to the previous month, as exports decline amidst weakening commodity prices.
According to the median forecast of 19 economists, Southeast Asia’s largest economy is projected to record a trade surplus of $3.02 billion, down from $3.94 billion in April.
Despite enjoying a monthly trade surplus since mid-2020, economists anticipate a gradual decline in the surplus throughout this year, primarily driven by the downward trend in commodity prices.
The economists participating in the survey predicted an 8.7% year-on-year decrease in May exports, a milder contraction compared to the 29.4% decline seen in the previous month, primarily due to the low base effect.
May imports are also expected to decrease by 11% compared to the corresponding month last year, a smaller contraction compared to April’s decline of 22.32%.
Bank Mandiri economist Faisal Rachman stated that both exports and imports are still contracting due to the global economic slowdown. He forecasted a trade surplus of $3.07 billion for May.
“The combination of falling commodity prices, a subdued global economic environment, and domestic political factors are causing a cautious approach in investment and production activities,” Rachman explained.
However, in terms of month-on-month performance, both exports and imports are expected to show growth in May as economic activity returns to normal following the conclusion of the April holiday of Eid al-Fitr, which marks the end of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan.
