19-4-2024 (JAKARTA) Indonesia’s trade dynamics are poised for a shift in March, with a Reuters poll indicating a widening trade surplus as imports are anticipated to ease following a period of heightened demand in the previous month.
According to the poll conducted among 14 economists between April 16 and April 19, March is expected to yield a trade surplus of $1.13 billion. This marks an increase from February’s surplus of around $870 million, which stood as the smallest surplus in nine months.
The largest economy in Southeast Asia has consistently recorded monthly trade surpluses for over three years, primarily driven by commodities such as coal, palm oil, and nickel. However, these surpluses have been gradually narrowing due to weakened global demand.
March’s export outlook appears challenging, with analysts forecasting headwinds. Meanwhile, imports are projected to have declined from the robust figures seen in February, a period when businesses ramped up overseas purchases in anticipation of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, which commenced in early March.
Analysts anticipate a 9.03 per cent contraction in exports for March compared to the previous year, following a 9.45 per cent decline in February. Concurrently, imports are expected to have fallen by 1.57 per cent year-on-year, following a notable 15.8 per cent surge in February.
