24-7-2023 (JAKARTA) Indonesian Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto has retained an early lead in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election, with a recent opinion poll showing strong support for the ex-special forces commander, particularly among young voters.
The Indikator poll, which canvassed the views of young voters, surveyed 1,220 people between June 20 and 24 across Indonesia, the world’s third-largest democracy. More than 60% of respondents were below the age of 42, and over half of the voters registered for the February 2024 poll are under 40, according to electoral data.
In a match-up among the top three presidential contenders, the poll showed Prabowo with a narrow lead of 36.8%, ahead of Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo with 35.7% and former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan with 21.5%. The poll had a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.
In a two-way race between Prabowo and Ganjar, Prabowo had a clear lead of 49.5% to 40.9%.
This is the third poll since May that has shown the former general emerging as an early and unexpected frontrunner, with the latest survey indicating that he has strong support among Gen Z, Millennials, and Baby Boomers.
Prabowo, who has been accused of human rights abuses that he has always denied, lost in consecutive bids to become president in 2014 and 2019. However, he has gained legitimacy as defence minister and embarked on a rebranding campaign that includes reaching out to young people through a sophisticated social media presence, contributing to his momentum.
The tacit support of President Joko Widodo, who commands an approval rating above 80%, has also helped boost Prabowo’s popularity, according to analysts. Jokowi, who is serving his second and final term, is a member of the Democratic Party of Struggle, which has officially nominated Ganjar as its candidate. However, he has been appearing frequently alongside Prabowo in public events.
