25-2-2024 (JAKARTA) Indonesian Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto clinched a sweeping victory in the nation’s presidential election on February 14, based on preliminary sample counts and official results showing over 75% of votes tallied as of February 23.
However, it’s the outgoing President Joko Widodo, commonly known as Jokowi, who has taken proactive steps post-election. He has engaged in a series of meetings and strategic moves, ostensibly aimed at facilitating a smooth transition in the remaining eight months of his term and preserving his political influence after leaving office.
Despite Prabowo’s coalition lacking a parliamentary majority, a situation that could lead to legislative standstill, Widodo is tactically working to shore up support for his likely successor in the 580-member House of Representatives, according to experts.
Widodo wasted no time, hosting a seemingly casual dinner at the presidential palace on February 18 with Surya Paloh, leader of the National Democratic (Nasdem) party, which had supported Prabowo’s opponent, Anies Baswedan. When questioned by reporters, Widodo downplayed the meeting as routine, expressing his intention to serve as a “bridge” and emphasizing the importance of political party involvement.
In a strategic move, three days after the dinner, Widodo appointed Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, leader of the Democratic Party and son of former President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, as the Minister of Agrarian Affairs and Spatial Planning. This minor reshuffle brought the Yudhoyono clan back into power after a decade in the political opposition.
Political analysts suggest that Widodo’s moves are driven by concerns about the threat of a parliamentary inquiry, known as Hak Angket, into alleged electoral fraud. Ganjar Pranowo and the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) have called for an inquiry into election irregularities, which could potentially lead to the president’s impeachment, causing political turmoil.
To prevent a united opposition front between Nasdem and PDIP against Prabowo, Widodo is reportedly lobbying Paloh. The urgency in meeting Paloh is seen as a preemptive move to hinder the media tycoon from engaging with PDIP matriarch Megawati Soekarnoputri.
Widodo’s meeting with Paloh positions him as a power broker, aiming to pave the way for Nasdem to enter Prabowo’s coalition, underscoring his interest in ensuring policy continuity and safeguarding his legacies even after leaving office.
With Prabowo’s coalition potentially commanding only 43% of parliamentary seats, experts highlight the challenges he will face in securing a majority. Balancing diverse interests within his coalition and managing party dynamics will be crucial for Prabowo, especially as his cabinet appointments will be closely scrutinized as a test of his ability to navigate complex political dynamics.
Analysts also speculate about the possibility of an “ongoing shadow government” where Widodo, despite officially stepping down, continues to wield significant influence. This could potentially lead to clashes of visions between Widodo and Prabowo.
As Indonesia braces for a new political era, questions arise about whether Widodo’s influence over Prabowo will persist or whether Prabowo will establish his own authority when he assumes office, signaling potential challenges in the cordiality of their relationship.
