24-10-2023 (JAKARTA) As Indonesia prepares for its upcoming presidential elections on Valentine’s Day next year, voters will find themselves in a unique situation – a three-way contest. This marks the first time since 2009 that Indonesia will experience a three-horse race in its presidential elections, providing voters with a wider array of choices and candidates with a more competitive arena.
The inclusion of more than two pairs of candidates offers voters additional options and forces the candidates to develop more comprehensive programs to win over the electorate. However, it also raises concerns about the potential use of identity politics to sway voters, potentially dividing the society.
The Three Pairs:
- The first pair includes former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan, aged 54, and the chairman of the National Awakening Party (PKB), Muhaimin Iskandar, aged 57.
- The second pair comprises former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo, aged 54, and Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal, and Security Affairs, Mahfud MD, aged 66.
- Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, aged 72, is running for the third time and has teamed up with Solo Mayor Gibran Rakabuming Raka, aged 36, who is also President Joko Widodo’s eldest son.
According to election law, a pair must secure more than 50% of the votes to win the elections. With 204.8 million eligible voters this time, a pair must also obtain at least 20% of the votes in over half of Indonesia’s 38 provinces.
In the previous election in 2019, when there were only two pairs, President Joko Widodo ran with Mr. Ma’ruf Amin and received approximately 55.5% of the votes, securing victory. However, the current three-pair scenario is expected to necessitate a second round of voting, which is likely to occur on June 26 next year since no pair has polled above 50% popularity.
As per recent polling data from Lembaga Survei Indonesia (LSI), Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka are currently leading with 35.9%, followed by Ganjar Pranowo and Mahfud MD at 26.1%, and Anies Baswedan and Muhaimin Iskandar at 19.6%.
The last time Indonesia had three pairs in a presidential election was in 2009 when then-incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono secured a victory in one round with 60.8% of the votes. However, analysts attribute this outcome to Yudhoyono’s incumbency and the clarity of his programs.
Why Three Pairs?
The presence of three pairs of presidential and vice-presidential candidates results from negotiations between political elites aiming to create political groupings. These groupings are often formed based on their interests, such as power-sharing and policy direction, and are distinct from the ideological differences seen in Western countries.
In contrast to some Western nations with presidential systems and primary elections, Indonesia’s closed political process is determined primarily by elites. The absence of significant ideological divisions among Indonesian political parties allows for flexible coalitions based on practical considerations.
The Impact of Three Pairs:
A three-horse race is expected to compel candidates to enhance their campaign programs and appeal to voters more effectively. It offers voters a broader scope for discussion and debate, which is vital for better understanding the candidates in a young democracy like Indonesia.
The presence of more candidates and elections is seen as a positive development for a country that emerged from over three decades of authoritarian rule in 1998. It positions Indonesia as one of the world’s largest democracies.
Mdm Titi Anggraini, an election law lecturer at the University of Indonesia, emphasized the significance of a three-pair race, particularly for the crucial Java region, home to over half of Indonesia’s population. Winning the majority of Java votes is seen as pivotal, given that it represents half of the country’s total voters.
Nevertheless, with the prospect of a second round, candidates are likely to intensify efforts to secure the support of influential religious leaders who can sway their followers. These leaders, such as those leading the Nahdlatul Ulama and Muhammadiyah, are influential in Indonesia and can significantly influence voters’ choices.
Political identity is also expected to play a prominent role in the campaigns. Candidates are likely to adopt multiple identities, including nationalism and religious affiliation, to gain voter support. The outcome of the election could lead to increased polarization in Indonesian society, given the use of identity politics by multiple candidates.
The possibility of a second round, should no pair secure 50% of the votes, could further exacerbate polarization, making it more challenging to prevent this outcome. Nonetheless, the three-pair race offers voters a broader perspective and a more dynamic electoral process, ensuring a deeper engagement of the electorate in the democratic process.
