5-7-2023 (BANGKOK) Analysts have hailed the appointment of Wan Muhamad Noor Matha as Thailand’s new Speaker of the House of Representatives, citing it as a positive compromise between the Move Forward Party and Pheu Thai. The decision may also bolster Move Forward leader Pita Limjaroenrat’s aspirations for the prime ministerial role, as senators could be more inclined to support him.
Wan Muhamad, the leader of the Prachachat Party, assumed the position of House Speaker uncontested on Tuesday (July 4). Observers have praised the widely respected veteran Muslim politician from Thailand’s far south, highlighting his significant support from various quarters.
While Mr. Wan Muhamad’s appointment is seen as a positive move, challenges lie ahead for Pita Limjaroenrat and the Move Forward Party. Established forces opposing the party’s radical reform proposals could hinder Mr. Pita’s ascent to the prime minister’s post and potentially exclude Move Forward from participating in the next government.
Dr. Kevin Hewison, Weldon E Thornton Distinguished Professor of Asian Studies at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, pointed out that there is a possibility that Mr. Pita could be disqualified after assuming the role of prime minister due to opposition from the establishment.
Professor Hewison described the selection of Mr. Wan Muhamad as House Speaker as a favorable compromise between the Move Forward Party and Pheu Thai. He emphasized the importance of the Speaker’s role and praised Wan Muhamad’s prior experience, having previously served in the same position from 1996 to 2000. Wan Muhamad’s strong support for democratic reform and his ability to garner widespread respect further enhance his suitability for the role.
Professor Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University, highlighted that the selection of House Speaker has historically been non-controversial in Thai politics. He explained that the largest winning party typically assumes the role, with few exceptions. However, this time, the House speakership became the subject of intense competition.
With Wan Muhamad assuming the role of House Speaker, it could potentially pave the way for Pita Limjaroenrat to become Thailand’s next prime minister. The Speaker has considerable influence over the legislative agenda, including the prioritization of bills and debates. This may appease senators who have concerns about Move Forward’s agenda, particularly regarding reforms to Article 112, the lese majeste law, which criminalizes defamation, insults, or threats against the monarch.
The joint decision for the prime ministerial role rests with the 500-seat elected House of Representatives and the 250-seat appointed Senate. Wan Muhamad holds the power to halt the progression of bills in parliamentary sessions should he or other coalition parties oppose them. This could sway senators to support Pita Limjaroenrat’s candidacy for prime minister.
However, Professor Hewison cautioned that Mr. Pita’s path to the top job remains challenging, as he faces obstacles such as allegations regarding his shareholdings in a media company. According to Section 98 of the constitution, individuals who hold shares in newspapers or mass media businesses are prohibited from running in House of Representatives elections. The establishment forces in Thailand are evidently opposed to Mr. Pita, and his case is likely to be sent to the constitutional court for further examination.
Professor Thitinan noted that Mr. Pita encounters various roadblocks in his bid for the prime minister’s position. Thailand has a history of disqualifications and dissolutions of parties and leaders. The establishment forces working against Move Forward and Mr. Pita wield significant power. The largest winning party, Move Forward, which secured 14.4 million votes, could potentially be systematically excluded from government, leaving its supporters discontented.
The coalition parties have agreed to pursue military reform, a matter of concern for the military as it undergoes a change of leadership in the coming months. The military has been silently observing these events but is prepared for potential demonstrations or protests if Pita’s path to the prime ministership is obstructed. Past disruptions have provided the military with an opportunity to reassert its influence in politics.
Given the complexities of Thai politics and the involvement of powerful entities, it is not surprising that the formation of a government has been delayed. Professor Thitinan expressed his concern that Move Forward may be denied the prime ministerial position and ultimately excluded from the coalition government. Despite being the largest winning party, Move Forward has faced foot-dragging, behind-the-scenes negotiations, and interference from influential figures.
