29-5-2023 (SINGAPORE) Weather and climate authorities have raised concerns about an increased risk of haze in the southern ASEAN region between June and October this year. The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) issued Alert Level 1, marking the start of the dry season associated with the Southwest Monsoon in the region.
Recent observations show persistent dry weather across Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and southern Thailand as the monsoon rain band moves north of the equator. The ASMC predicts a more intense and prolonged dry season compared to previous years, potentially extending into October 2023. This heightened risk is attributed to the likelihood of developing El Nino conditions in the coming months.
Currently, hotspot activities in the southern ASEAN region remain relatively low, with only 14 and 13 hotspots detected on May 27 and May 28 respectively, according to the ASMC. While localized smoke plumes have been identified on some days in May, there have been no observed occurrences of transboundary smoke haze.
Early signs of El Nino conditions include warmer subsurface ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific since earlier this year. Additionally, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which inhibits cloud formation over specific parts of the tropical Indian Ocean, may develop in the next one to two months. Both climate phenomena typically lead to drier and warmer conditions in the southern ASEAN region.
Considering these observations, the ASMC has assessed a higher risk of escalated hotspot activities and transboundary smoke haze during the period between June and October 2023 compared to the last three years, which were influenced by prolonged La Nina conditions.
The ASMC emphasizes the importance of taking precautionary measures and implementing mitigation strategies to prevent fires and transboundary haze. Regular updates on regional weather and smoke haze conditions can be found on the ASMC website.
