9-8-2024 (TOKYO) Japan finds itself on the precipice of a potential catastrophe as seismologists warn of an increased likelihood of a devastating earthquake that could wreak havoc across vast swathes of the country’s central and western regions.
In an unprecedented move, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) issued a special bulletin on Thursday, cautioning that the probability of a major seismic event has significantly escalated. This warning comes in the wake of a magnitude 7.1 earthquake that struck off the coast of Miyazaki prefecture on the southern island of Kyushu, triggering several minor tsunamis.
The land of the rising sun, perched precariously on the infamous “Pacific Ring of Fire”, has long grappled with the spectre of seismic activity. For decades, experts have sounded the alarm about the inevitability of a massive Nankai Trough earthquake. Now, it seems, that dreaded eventuality may be drawing nearer.
The Nankai Trough, a deep submarine trench stretching from Shizuoka prefecture to Miyazaki, marks the collision point of the Philippine Sea and Eurasian tectonic plates. This geological boundary has been the epicentre of numerous catastrophic earthquakes throughout Japan’s history, occurring roughly every century.
With the last major event in this region dating back 80 years, seismologists have been warning of a 70% chance of another significant quake within the next three decades. The potential magnitude of such an event is staggering, with estimates suggesting it could reach up to 9.0 on the Richter scale and generate tsunamis exceeding 30 metres in height. Government projections paint a grim picture, with potential casualties numbering in the hundreds of thousands.
The economic implications of such a disaster are equally sobering. The affected area encompasses nearly a third of Japan’s landmass and is home to approximately half of the nation’s 120 million inhabitants. This region serves as a crucial hub for manufacturing industries, including automotive, steel, petrochemicals, and electronics, forming integral links in global supply chains.
A 2019 Cabinet Office report estimated that the economic toll could reach a staggering 100 trillion yen, with an additional 24.8 trillion yen in lost production of goods and services.
In response to Thursday’s tremor, which occurred in the vicinity of the anticipated Nankai Trough event, an expert panel convened by the JMA concluded that the likelihood of a large-scale earthquake has become “multiple times higher than usual”. This assessment prompted the issuance of the first-ever Nankai Trough Earthquake Extra Information bulletin and accompanying advisory.
While no immediate evacuations have been ordered, authorities are urging residents in potentially affected areas to remain vigilant and prepared. Emergency kits should be kept at the ready, evacuation routes confirmed, and homes secured against potential tremors.
The government’s response has been swift, with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida cancelling a planned diplomatic tour of Central Asian nations to oversee the situation domestically. Meanwhile, transportation networks have implemented precautionary measures, with the iconic Tokaido Shinkansen high-speed rail line operating at reduced speeds in high-risk areas.
