2-11-2023 (SINGAPORE) In a recent assessment of the Israel-Hamas conflict, international affairs scholar Joseph Liow emphasised that the ongoing war would have profound geopolitical consequences for Southeast Asia. Professor Liow made these remarks during a question-and-answer (Q&A) session held on Wednesday at the 13th IPS-Nathan Lecture Series, hosted by the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS). The discussion revolved around the theme of “South-east Asia in a Shifting Global Order: Grasping the Nettle or Groping in the Dark?”
Professor Liow, who serves as the dean of Nanyang Technological University’s (NTU) College of Humanities, Arts, and Social Sciences, highlighted the connection between events in the Middle East and extremist groups in Southeast Asia. He pointed out that many extremist groups in the region have previously expressed their support for the Palestinian cause. This alignment with the plight of the Palestinians could lead to security challenges and impact inter-community relationships in Southeast Asia, making it an issue that deserves close monitoring.
One of the key concerns raised by Professor Liow is the potential impact on political leaders in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) who seek to strengthen their ties with the United States. He stated that anti-American sentiments among the local population could pose difficulties for leaders aiming to foster closer relations with the United States. Professor Liow pointed out that the United States has not always been welcomed with open arms in the region, with many Southeast Asian countries still bearing memories of past events, particularly the aftermath of 9/11, Afghanistan, and Iraq.
Notably, Malaysia’s Prime Minister, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, openly supports the Palestinian cause and has condemned Israel’s occupation of Palestine. This stance has led to tensions between Malaysia and the United States, as U.S. officials questioned Malaysia’s refusal to label Hamas as a terrorist organization. The conflict between Israel and Hamas, which began with a surprise rocket attack by Hamas on October 7, has escalated and resulted in a significant loss of life.
While the United States initially pledged unwavering support for Israel, the Biden administration has now shifted its focus to address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. As the death toll continues to rise, Professor Liow noted that Malaysia’s support for the Palestinians is understandable but could create challenges for Malaysia if it seeks to openly cooperate with the United States.
Reflecting on past challenges, Professor Liow recalled the difficulties faced by the Malaysian government in advancing its relationship with the United States two decades ago due to public opposition, mainly stemming from the Iraq invasion. He stressed that today’s domestic political landscape is even more complex, making it a more delicate situation for ASEAN nations.
Addressing the broader global context, Professor Liow highlighted that the world is currently at a crossroads, with various political, social, and economic forces challenging unbridled globalization and interdependence. In this shifting global order, ASEAN faces the challenge of advancing the collective interests of its member states.
One of the key issues at hand is the continued disinterest of the United States in global trade, which could significantly affect Southeast Asia, a region deeply connected to international trading networks. Additionally, ASEAN must navigate the changing dynamics of global leadership, particularly as China seeks to establish new institutions to challenge American dominance.
These developments could impact ASEAN’s status as a premier institution in Southeast Asia. In light of these shifts in the global order, ASEAN must consider how to assert its influence in shaping and preserving the rules, particularly within its own sphere of influence.
During the Q&A session, moderated by Professor Barry Desker, a distinguished fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Professor Liow also discussed the impact of the military coup in Myanmar on ASEAN’s unity. Despite ASEAN’s efforts to adhere to a five-point consensus reached with the Myanmar junta in 2021, the junta has shown limited interest in cooperating.
The five-point consensus includes an immediate end to violence in Myanmar, dialogue among all parties, the appointment of a special envoy, humanitarian assistance by ASEAN, and the special envoy’s visit to Myanmar to engage with all stakeholders. Professor Liow noted the junta’s stance that the resolution of violence must precede negotiations.
He also pointed out parallel discussions initiated by Thailand, which further complicate the situation. Professor Liow stressed the importance of coordination between these processes to ensure a cohesive approach.
In conclusion, the complex landscape of Southeast Asia’s geopolitical relations, coupled with the evolving global order, presents significant challenges and uncertainties for the region. ASEAN will need to navigate these complexities and maintain its relevance and influence on the international stage. However, achieving consensus among its diverse member states remains a persistent challenge, given their differing positions on various issues.
