30-7-2024 (BEIJING) As China’s aviation industry spreads its wings, the nation’s skies seem increasingly cramped for its burgeoning ambitions in commercial aircraft manufacturing. The Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (Comac) is looking beyond its borders, eyeing Southeast Asian markets as a potential launchpad for its C919 narrowbody jet, in a bid to challenge the long-standing duopoly of Airbus and Boeing.
Despite a flurry of domestic orders for the C919, Comac faces significant hurdles in its quest for international expansion. The absence of crucial certifications from European and American aviation regulators, coupled with geopolitical tensions, threatens to ground the manufacturer’s lofty aspirations. However, Southeast Asia has emerged as a beacon of hope for the Chinese aircraft maker.
Jakarta-based airline TransNusa has already caught Comac’s attention, with the Indonesian carrier currently operating two ARJ21 regional jets. Shukor Yusof, founder of Singapore-based aviation consultancy Endau Analytics, believes TransNusa’s loyalty to Comac could lead to a firm order for the C919 within the next two years. “TransNusa needs larger jets to grow and compete effectively,” Yusof noted.
Comac’s team in Jakarta, which has been instrumental in training TransNusa pilots, aims to replicate the success of the ARJ21 with the larger C919. The Chinese manufacturer is expected to offer attractive discounts and incentives as TransNusa considers upgrading its ageing fleet of Airbus A320s.
Indonesia’s aviation market holds particular allure for Comac. Forecasts from the Airports Council International predict that Indonesia will become the world’s fourth-largest market by traffic in the 2040s, trailing only China, the United States, and India. This potential for growth makes Indonesia a prime target for Comac’s expansion strategy.
Beyond Indonesia, Comac has set its sights on Brunei, having inked a US$2 billion deal with start-up carrier GallopAir for 30 aircraft, including the C919. The fledgling airline, backed by Chinese investors, is aiming to commence operations by the end of 2024 and has already applied for C919 certification from Bruneian regulators.
Professor Zhang Xin, the Swire Professor of Aerospace Engineering at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, sees a window of opportunity for Comac in Southeast Asia. “From trade ties and geographic proximity to market potential, Southeast Asia’s vibrant new carriers tick all the right boxes,” Zhang observed. He also pointed out that Boeing’s recent troubles with the 737 series and Airbus’s capacity constraints could work in Comac’s favour.
The Middle East has also piqued Comac’s interest, with company president He Dongfeng recently visiting Saudi Arabia for talks with national carrier Saudia. The region’s role as a global aviation hub makes it an attractive prospect for the C919.
However, Comac’s international aspirations face significant challenges. Geopolitical realities make certification in Europe and America a distant prospect, while markets such as Japan, South Korea, and India remain unlikely to welcome the Chinese jet.
Nathaniel Sher, a senior researcher at Carnegie China, suggests that Beijing may leverage diplomatic influence and trade ties to attract foreign buyers. The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) could also form partnerships with foreign regulators to facilitate overseas certification for the C919.
