7-11-2023 (GAZA) On the 30th of October, there were reports circulating that Israeli territories were conspicuously absent from the mapping services offered by Chinese tech giants Baidu and Alibaba. This raised speculation that Beijing might be taking sides in the ongoing conflict, favoring Hamas over Israel.
Within hours, Chinese officials moved to dispel this notion, highlighting that Israel’s name still appeared on the official Chinese maps. They stressed that there had been no changes in the mapping data following the October 7th attack by Hamas.
Furthermore, the Chinese Foreign Ministry took a proactive stance, reaffirming its commitment to neutrality in the conflict. They emphasized their respect for Israel’s right to self-defense and recognized the rights of the Palestinian people under international humanitarian law.
This commitment to balance and impartiality should come as no surprise, as it has been the cornerstone of China’s Middle East strategy for over a decade. During this time, Beijing has sought to position itself as a friend to all nations in the region, avoiding taking sides.
However, the recent mapping incident highlights a dilemma for Beijing in the current crisis. The deepening polarization in both the Middle East and the global community is making it increasingly challenging for China to maintain its balanced diplomacy approach.
As an academic specializing in China’s foreign policy, I believe that the Israel-Hamas conflict is the most severe test yet for President Xi Jinping’s Middle East strategy, centered around the concept of “balanced diplomacy.” The growing pro-Palestinian sentiment in China and the country’s historical sympathies in the region suggest that if forced to choose, China may lean towards supporting the Palestinians over the Israelis.
However, this is a choice Beijing would prefer to avoid for sound economic and foreign policy reasons. Taking a side in the conflict could mark the end of China’s decade-long effort to establish itself as a constructive mediator in the region, striving to broker peace deals and create a genuinely inclusive regional economic and security order.
Beijing’s Objectives and Strategies
Contrary to conventional wisdom in diplomatic circles in previous decades, China’s interest in the Middle East has significantly increased since 2012. During this time, China has invested considerable diplomatic efforts to enhance its influence in the region.
China envisions a Middle East where the United States’ influence diminishes while its own influence grows. This aligns with its broader global vision, articulated in initiatives like the Community of Common Destiny, Global Development Initiative, Global Security Initiative, and Global Civilization Initiative. These initiatives are designed to appeal to countries in the Global South, which feel increasingly alienated from the US-led international order.
This vision is rooted in concerns that continued US dominance in the Middle East could jeopardize China’s access to the region’s vital oil and gas resources. It’s important to note that China does not seek to replace the US as the dominant power in the region. Such a shift is implausible due to the US dollar’s dominance and the longstanding US relations with major Middle Eastern economies.
China’s approach is to encourage multi-alignment among regional countries, promoting individual engagement with China in areas such as infrastructure and trade. This not only fosters relationships between China and Middle Eastern nations but also reduces incentives to join exclusive US-led blocs.
Beijing aims to foster multi-alignment through what Chinese government documents describe as “balanced diplomacy” and “positive balancing.” Balanced diplomacy involves refraining from taking sides in various conflicts, including the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, to avoid making enemies. Positive balancing centers on closer cooperation with a regional power, such as Iran, with the hope that other nations, like Arab Gulf countries, will follow suit.
China’s Middle East Success
Before the Hamas attack on Israel in October, Beijing’s strategy had yielded substantial dividends. In 2016, China established a comprehensive strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia and signed a 25-year cooperation agreement with Iran in 2020. During the same period, China expanded its economic ties with Gulf countries, including Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Oman.
Beyond the Gulf, China deepened economic relations with Egypt and became the largest investor in the Suez Canal Area Development Project. China also invested in reconstruction projects in Iraq and Syria.
Earlier this year, China played a key role in re-establishing diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, positioning itself as a major mediator in the region. Following this success, Beijing even explored the possibility of mediating peace between Israel and the Palestinians.
Impact of the Israel-Hamas War
The Israel-Hamas conflict has, however, complicated China’s Middle East strategy. Initially, Beijing maintained its balanced diplomacy approach, refraining from condemning Hamas after the October 7th attack. Instead, China urged both sides to exercise restraint and seek a two-state solution, consistent with its policy of non-interference in other nations’ internal affairs.
However, this neutral stance differed from the stance taken by the United States and some European nations, who pressured China to adopt a firmer position. Under pressure from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and others, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reiterated China’s view that every country has the right to self-defense. He also qualified this by emphasizing Israel’s obligation to adhere to international humanitarian law and protect civilian safety.
This qualification marked a shift in China’s tone, as it progressively adopted statements more sympathetic to the Palestinians and critical of Israel. On October 25, China exercised its veto power at the United Nations, blocking a US resolution calling for a humanitarian pause on the grounds that it did not require Israel to lift its Gaza siege. China’s UN ambassador, Zhang Jun, explained that this decision was based on the “strong appeals of the entire world, in particular the Arab countries.”
Championing the Global South
This shift is unsurprising, considering China’s economic interests and geopolitical ambitions. China’s trade dependence on Middle Eastern and North African states with which it has established economic ties surpasses its trade with Israel. If geopolitical pressures force China to choose between Israel and the Arab world, there are powerful economic incentives to side with the latter.
China also has a significant incentive to support the Palestinians in its aspiration to be seen as a champion of the Global South. Many countries in Africa, Latin America, and elsewhere view the Palestinian struggle against Israel as akin to fighting colonization or resisting apartheid.
Siding with Israel in this context could place China on the side of the perceived colonial oppressor, potentially undermining its diplomatic and economic efforts through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative and the encouragement of Global South countries to join the BRICS economic bloc.
While China’s maps of the Middle East may remain unchanged, its diplomats might be questioning whether there is still room for balanced diplomacy.
