12-8-2024 (BEIJING) In a complex geopolitical manoeuvre, China appears to be employing a sophisticated “divide and conquer” approach in its dealings with Vietnam and the Philippines over the contentious South China Sea issue, according to recent analysis by regional experts. This strategy comes to light as both Southeast Asian nations seek to bolster their military capabilities through closer ties with regional partners, partly in response to the ongoing maritime dispute.
Beijing’s policy seems carefully calibrated, taking into account the contrasting approaches of Manila and Hanoi in managing their respective disputes. The Philippines, under President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr, has adopted a more assertive stance, publicly challenging Chinese actions and seeking international support. In stark contrast, Vietnam has maintained a low-profile approach, preferring to handle disagreements through quieter diplomatic channels.
Recent months have seen a series of confrontations between Philippine and Chinese vessels in the contested waters, with incidents ranging from the use of water cannons to the boarding of Philippine ships by armed Chinese personnel. These encounters have been accompanied by a continuous exchange of verbal salvos between the two nations.
Vietnam, on the other hand, appears to have more avenues for dialogue with China to defuse tensions, according to analysts. This difference in approach has not gone unnoticed by Beijing, which seems to be tailoring its responses accordingly.
The Philippines has been actively pursuing defence agreements with various nations, including Germany, the United States, Australia, and Japan, to enhance its military cooperation. Similarly, Vietnam has pledged to strengthen its partnership with India and has signed military cooperation agreements with several countries, including the US, Australia, France, and Japan.
Abdul Rahman Yaacob, a research fellow at the Lowy Institute, notes that while both Vietnam and the Philippines face similar challenges in the South China Sea, their strategies differ markedly. “Vietnam’s strategy is not to allow its disputes with China in the South China Sea to shape its otherwise healthy relations with its northern neighbours,” Rahman explained.
China’s approach appears to be softer towards Vietnam compared to its more assertive stance against the Philippines. This discrepancy is seen as part of Beijing’s strategy to avoid antagonising both nations simultaneously, which could stretch its resources.
Carl Thayer, an emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales, highlighted that Vietnam has refrained from deploying its navy to confront Chinese ships, instead relying on coastguard and civilian vessels. This approach, coupled with tight control over media coverage of maritime incidents, stands in stark contrast to the Philippines’ more public confrontations.
Khang Vu, a doctoral candidate at Boston College, suggests that Beijing’s more lenient treatment of Hanoi stems from Vietnam’s non-alliance with the US and the existence of inter-party ties between the two nations. “Such secrecy allows for easier de-escalation due to neither side fearing loss of face publicly,” Vu noted.
