24-10-2023 (MANILA) China and the Philippines are engaged in an escalating blame game over twin collisions in the disputed South China Sea, heightening the potential for armed conflict that could involve the United States, according to a Chinese observer. The accusations between the two countries have intensified in the aftermath of two incidents on Sunday (Oct 22) involving coastguard boats from each side.
On Monday, Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning accused the Philippines of provocation by repeatedly intruding into Renai Jiao, also known as the Second Thomas Shoal, and spreading disinformation. The area where the collisions occurred is part of the Spratly Islands, called the Nansha Islands in Chinese, which are claimed by both countries.
Ding Duo, an associate research fellow at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, warned that these incidents could be a tipping point in the relationship between Beijing and the United States’ oldest ally in Asia. The Philippine defense minister had earlier accused the Chinese coastguard of harassing and intentionally hitting a Philippine resupply ship and a Philippine Coast Guard vessel.
Gilbert Teodoro, in a statement in Manila on Monday, strongly condemned the violation and illegal act within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone, emphasizing China’s distortion of the truth to suit its own interests.
While China has dismissed the encounters as “slight collisions,” Philippine Coast Guard Commodore Jay Tarriela stated that the damage to the resupply ship was more than a mere scratch. The Philippines summoned the Chinese ambassador on Monday to file a diplomatic protest, and the Chinese embassy in Manila reciprocated with a similar complaint.
These confrontations on Sunday occurred just before the latest round of negotiations on a code of conduct in the South China Sea, where China and the Philippines are among the rival claimants. The talks, which started in Beijing on Monday, aim to prevent major armed conflicts in the region.
China asserts “indisputable sovereignty” over the Second Thomas Shoal, which has become a focal point in the resource-rich waters, witnessing frequent clashes between Chinese and Philippine vessels in recent months. China has repeatedly prevented the Philippines from resupplying construction materials to the shoal, where the Philippines has maintained a rusty World War II-era ship since 1999 to assert its claims to the waters.
Although no injuries were reported in Sunday’s collisions, these physical clashes mark the first of their kind in recent years, drawing attention to the dispute. Ding from the South China Sea Studies Institute warned about the impact on bilateral relations, highlighting that the two sides had previously managed to control their differences but now face broken agreements.
Ding expressed concerns that the face-off could damage bilateral trust and affect the ongoing code of conduct talks, which have been long-awaited.
The South China Sea is a vital trade route for Southeast and East Asian countries, and any escalation in the area would increase the risk of involving the United States, the Philippines’ treaty ally for over 70 years. Under the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty, the US is obligated to defend the Philippines if its forces, ships, or aircraft come under armed attack, including those of its coastguard in the South China Sea. The US State Department reaffirmed this commitment in a statement following Sunday’s collisions.
On the same day, the US conducted its first-ever trilateral aerial exercise with Japan and South Korea in response to evolving North Korean nuclear threats. However, Ding cautioned that it remains to be seen how much the US would want to see a conflict between China and the Philippines spiral out of control.
According to Philippine officials, approximately five Chinese coastguard ships, eight accompanying vessels, and two navy ships formed a blockade on Sunday to prevent two Philippine coastguard ships and two boats from delivering food and supplies to forces stationed at Second Thomas Shoal. While coastguard vessels from both sides were involved in the incident, there was no direct conflict between them, indicating that both sides attempted to avoid a crisis escalation, as noted by Ding.
Nevertheless, the risk of conflict remains high, as the Philippines has stated its intention to continue resupply missions, and China shows no signs of backing down. In an unusual move, China swiftly issued a statement after the first encounter on Sunday. Subsequently, after the second collision, China released two videos purportedly taken from a coastguard vessel and a drone. In response, the Philippines brought a group of journalists on a coastguard ship, possibly attempting to exert public pressure on China.
Ding described the situation as a test for both sides, highlighting the critical nature of the ongoing tensions in the South China Sea.
