22-6-2023 (SINGAPORE) Cambodia’s indecision over its involvement in the inaugural region-wide joint naval exercises threatens to undermine the unity of Southeast Asian nations, analysts argue. While the drills should still proceed even without the participation of Cambodia or other countries, Phnom Penh’s hesitance reflects its desire not to upset China, on which it heavily relies for aid and investment.
After a recent meeting of ASEAN defence ministers in Bali, the Indonesian military chief announced that the 10-member bloc would hold its first-ever joint military naval exercises in the South China Sea in September. The drills will focus on maritime security and search and rescue operations rather than combat.
On Tuesday, Indonesia confirmed that ASEAN members had an initial planning conference for the joint exercises running from September 18 to 25. However, shortly after, Cambodia’s military commander-in-chief released a statement saying Cambodia had not yet agreed to the drills. He said that while Indonesia proposed the idea as the current chair of ASEAN, Cambodia and “several other countries” had not responded.
Joshua Bernard Espeña, a resident fellow at the Manila-based think tank International Development and Security Cooperation, said Cambodia was hesitant due to its geopolitical and economic dependence on China. He argued that if the aim is for regular ASEAN naval drills, non-participating countries could send observers to promote the message of ASEAN unity. While Myanmar also relies on China, it will not join in September due to internal conflict, Indonesia confirmed.
Cambodia gets 44% of its foreign direct investment from China, contributing to its cautiousness about exercises in the South China Sea, said Joanne Lin Weiling, coordinator at Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. If outside that area, Cambodia might participate, Lin said, noting it joined other ASEAN drills like last month’s ASEAN Multilateral Naval Exercise in the Philippines.
Initially, Indonesia said September’s joint drills would be off its Natuna Islands in the South China Sea. However, on Tuesday, it said they would now be in waters just outside the “nine-dash line” which Beijing uses to claim the sea. Lin said Cambodia supports ASEAN cooperation boosting regional maritime security in responding to common challenges, “as long as it does not provoke other parties or increase tensions.”
The drills should proceed for willing nations, improving their naval collaboration, said Sophal Ear, an associate professor at the Thunderbird School of Global Management. Cambodia’s uncertainty shows its desire not to “rock the boat with China, an ironclad friend,” Ear said. “Anyone who participates is offending China. Anyone who doesn’t participate is with China.” However, the drills would boost participants’ naval abilities and joint capacity.
September’s drills will be the first ASEAN joint exercises since its 1967 formation. Rifki Dermawan, an international relations lecturer, said while others may also withdraw to avoid upsetting China, proceeding shows ASEAN’s collective regional protection. “China is not the only threat,” Rifki said, noting mini-lateralism like AUKUS and the Quad had raised tensions, forcing ASEAN to plan drills proving its centrality.
The exercises tell China and the US that ASEAN will not rally against China but will not give up maritime grievances, Espeña said. ASEAN should strengthen its resilience using its platform, said Iseas’ Lin, with major powers intensifying disputes and military drills, including between the US and ASEAN nations, China-Thailand, and China-Laos.
The Aman Youyi-2023 drills between China and some ASEAN nations will also be held. “As such, it is important for ASEAN to strengthen its own resilience by using its own platform to promote regional cooperation,” Lin concluded.
